Lille
Arsenal FC
Win Probability
Projected score
0.9 – 3.5
Arsenal FC hosts Lille in a Champions League fixture where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The model projects a comfortable Arsenal victory, with the attacking play likely to dominate; Bukayo Saka has a 73% chance of over 1.5 shots, while Gabriel Martinelli projects at 68% for the same mark. Lille's task hinges on stemming that offensive pressure—the simulation suggests the deciding factor is whether Arsenal's forwards can consistently find space. In games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's model has won 6 of 8 similar matchups. For Lille to pull off an upset, they would need to compress Arsenal's space in midfield and catch them on transition.
| Book | Line | ARS | EV | LIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 ↗ | — | — | — | — | — |
| Book | ARS | EV | LIL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -400 | +2.6% | +947 | -25.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | -455 | +1.4% | +1000 | -24.1% |
| bet365 ↗ | -400 | +2.6% | +1100 | -21.8% |
| William Hill ↗ | -400 | +2.6% | +1000 | -24.1% |
| BetVictor ↗ | -455 | +1.4% | +1050 | -23.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3.5 | +145 | +27.5% | -192 | -22.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -175 | +13.6% | +125 | -28.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | 3.5 | +150 | +29.1% | -189 | -21.9% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3.5 | +131 | +23.1% | -192 | -22.1% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3.5 | +146 | +27.8% | -179 | -21.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 84.2%
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC 84% to win, Lille 5%, with a 11% chance of a draw. Projected score: Lille 0.9, Arsenal FC 3.5. The single most likely scoreline is 0–3 (9% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC the more likely winner at 84%, with a 11% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arsenal FC a 84% chance of beating Lille, with 5% for Lille and 11% for a draw. Arsenal FC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Lille 0.9, Arsenal FC 3.5, with 0-3 the single most likely scoreline.