AccuScore Market Index · NFL

Market Power Poll?Every team rated only from betting prices. NFL: points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field. NHL, MLB and NBA: the chance to beat an average team on neutral ice, field or court, where 50% is average.

Every NFL team rated from the lines on the sportsbooks, Kalshi and Polymarket, updated every Tuesday. The number is how many points better or worse than an average team on a neutral field. AccuScore's own rating sits next to it.

Chaos calendar?Each week's upsets against the number the closing prices expected. Chalky: fewer upsets than expected. Normal, wild, and rarely chaos: far more than expected. A week where the top 10 lose far more often than their prices said is chaos too, however the other games went.

Upsets and chalk, week by week

?Home advantage is estimated from the prices every week. Recent games count most: a game's weight halves every three weeks, and Week 1 starts from 80% of last season's final rating.
Upset markets?Fair odds on how many favourites will lose in the coming week, priced from the same prices: every game is its own coin with its own odds.

Sportsbooks vs prediction markets?The ranking run twice, once on the sportsbooks' prices and once on the prediction markets' (Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX, Novig), and the teams they rate most differently.

Where they disagree

Poll vs the markets?Last week's ratings turned into a price for each game, next to the market's actual price. The gap is what the market saw that the ratings did not: results since, injuries, lineups.

How it's calculated

Points, not votes

  1. Start from the line. Each game's closing point spread is the market's expected winning margin. The poll uses two numbers per game, averaged: the sportsbooks’ consensus line and the prediction markets’ line (the middle of Kalshi, Polymarket, ProphetX and Novig).
  2. Every line compares two teams. Favoured by 7 over a weak team says less than favoured by 3 over a strong one, so every team's rating is solved together from all games.
  3. Recent weeks count most, and next week counts too. A game's weight halves every 3 weeks. The Tuesday poll also reads next week's lines, so a win shows up the same week through the market's reaction. Week 1 starts from 80% of last season's final rating.
  4. Sportsbooks vs prediction markets. The same calculation also runs on the sportsbooks’ lines alone and on the prediction markets’ alone. The team panel shows each market’s ranking; the section below the poll shows where the two disagree most.
Line = Team rating − Opponent rating + Home field

Where AccuScore sits

Same method, AccuScore's numbers

AccuScore simulates every game thousands of times and publishes its own projected margin. Running those margins through exactly the same calculation gives an AccuScore rating for every team: the teal dot in the poll and the dashed line in the team chart.

When the teal dot sits right of the bar's end, AccuScore thinks the team is better than the market does. AccuScore's ratings spread wider than the market's (its simulations project bigger margins), so the Accu rank is the fairer comparison.

This week's top 10, by the markets

New to the Market Index? Two short videos show how to read it.

NFL 2026 · Week 8

  1. 1Jacksonville Jaguars+5.7 pts5–2
  2. 2Seattle Seahawks+5.0 pts4–4
  3. 3Los Angeles Rams+4.4 pts4–4
  4. 4Buffalo Bills+4.3 pts6–1
  5. 5Kansas City Chiefs+3.8 pts5–2
  6. 6San Francisco 49ers+3.6 pts6–1
  7. 7Houston Texans+3.6 pts2–5
  8. 8Cincinnati Bengals+3.1 pts5–2
  9. 9Detroit Lions+2.8 pts5–2
  10. 10Denver Broncos+2.7 pts6–2

NCAAF 2026 · Week 9

  1. 1Ohio State+28.9 pts6–1
  2. 2Notre Dame+28.8 pts7–1
  3. 3Georgia+26.0 pts7–1
  4. 4Indiana+24.6 pts8–1
  5. 5Miami+24.3 pts8–0
  6. 6Texas+23.9 pts6–2
  7. 7Alabama+22.9 pts6–2
  8. 8LSU+21.5 pts6–2
  9. 9Ole Miss+18.2 pts6–2
  10. 10Oregon+17.9 pts5–3

NHL 2026–27 · Week 5

  1. 1Colorado Avalanche62% vs an average team9–5–1
  2. 2Carolina Hurricanes61% vs an average team12–2–2
  3. 3Tampa Bay Lightning60% vs an average team8–3–2
  4. 4Dallas Stars58% vs an average team8–5–1
  5. 5Vegas Golden Knights57% vs an average team9–5–2
  6. 6Utah Mammoth56% vs an average team9–6
  7. 7Minnesota Wild56% vs an average team10–3–3
  8. 8New Jersey Devils56% vs an average team9–5
  9. 9Florida Panthers54% vs an average team8–5–2
  10. 10Montreal Canadiens54% vs an average team9–3–2

NBA 2026–27 · Week 2

  1. 1San Antonio Spurs69% vs an average team5–2
  2. 2Boston Celtics62% vs an average team5–2
  3. 3Oklahoma City Thunder61% vs an average team5–0
  4. 4New York Knicks60% vs an average team3–4
  5. 5Houston Rockets59% vs an average team5–1
  6. 6Cleveland Cavaliers58% vs an average team4–3
  7. 7Detroit Pistons57% vs an average team5–1
  8. 8Portland Trail Blazers57% vs an average team4–1
  9. 9Denver Nuggets57% vs an average team3–3
  10. 10Philadelphia 76ers56% vs an average team7–0

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