How often the favourite won, how often the home side won, and how often the total went over — across 4,096 played NFL games in AccuScore's archive. None of this is our model. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers priced shorter, and the result is the result.
Seasons run August to February and are labelled by the year they start. The favourite is the side laying points on the Vegas spread.
| Season | Games | Favourite won | Home won | Over |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 285 | 66.3% | 53.3% | 52.6% |
| 2024 | 285 | 71.9% | 54.7% | 53.7% |
| 2023 | 285 | 66.3% | 56.5% | 45.3% |
| 2022 | 285 | 66.0% | 56.5% | 43.9% |
| 2021 | 285 | 62.1% | 51.6% | 45.6% |
| 2020 | 269 | 66.2% | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| 2019 | 267 | 64.0% | 51.7% | 50.2% |
| 2018 | 267 | 65.9% | 59.6% | 45.7% |
| 2017 | 267 | 67.3% | 57.3% | 44.9% |
| 2016 | 267 | 64.8% | 57.7% |
Across 4,076 priced NFL games in AccuScore's archive, the favourite won 66.2% of the time. The favourite is whichever side the bookmakers made shorter, not whichever side we projected.
Home teams won 55.5% of 4,096 games in the archive.
Of 4,096 games with a posted total, 48.3% went over. A rate near half is what an efficient market looks like — the number is interesting when a season moves away from it.
| 51.3% |
| 2015 | 267 | 64.3% | 53.6% | 47.9% |
| 2014 | 266 | 67.4% | 57.5% | 45.9% |
| 2013 | 267 | 68.2% | 59.6% | 50.6% |
| 2012 | 267 | 65.4% | 56.9% | 47.9% |
| 2011 | 267 | 67.4% | 57.3% | 49.4% |