Jacksonville Jaguars
6-2
Tennessee Titans
1-7
Win Probability
Jacksonville Jaguars visit Tennessee Titans in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the visitors. Trevor Lawrence's projected 240 passing yards will likely come against a Titans defense that's yielded enough to see Bhayshul Tuten reach 85 yards from scrimmage for Jacksonville. The game hinges on Tennessee's ability to generate offense: Cam Ward is projected for just 210 passing yards, and Tony Pollard for 70 yards from scrimmage—a significant gap that mirrors Jacksonville's advantage across the board. AccuScore's model has won 86% of games shaped like this one over 271 graded matchups. For Tennessee to pull the upset, it would need to exceed those projections substantially while holding Jacksonville below its own.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H JAX ML
JAX -350
-2.4% EV
68.1% leads · push 7.6%
BetMGM ↗
1H TEN ML
TEN +330
+6.0% EV
24.3% leads · push 7.6%
betPARX ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
JAX -6.5 -112
-4.9% EV
47.7% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
TEN +6.5 +100
+2.3% EV
52.3% covers
Fanatics ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 +100
-0.2% EV
49.8% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 -106
-1.2% EV
50.2% under
betPARX ↗
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | Line | TEN | EV | JAX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +10.5 | -112 | +1.5% | -108 | -6.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +10.5 | -115 | +0.9% | -105 | -5.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +10.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -108 | -6.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +10.5 | -108 | +2.4% | -112 | -6.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +10.5 | -110 | +1.9% | -110 | -6.5% |
| Book | TEN | EV | JAX | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +455 | +1.6% | -625 | -3.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +430 | -0.7% | -590 | -2.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +425 | -1.2% | -550 | -2.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | +400 | -3.5% | -560 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +425 | -1.2% | -650 | -3.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 46.5 | -105 | -2.3% | -115 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -110 | -1.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -112 | -1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 46.5 | -105 | -2.3% | -115 | -2.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.4%
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NFL
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville Jaguars 81% to beat Tennessee Titans (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville Jaguars the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tennessee Titans a 19% chance of beating Jacksonville Jaguars, against 81% for Jacksonville Jaguars. Tennessee Titans are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2 so far) project to finish 12.2–4.8 and make the playoffs in 96% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tennessee Titans (1-7 so far) project to finish 4.5–12.5 and make the playoffs in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 12.2–4.8 | 88% | 96% |
| Tennessee Titans | 4.5–12.5 | 1% | 2% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Jacksonville Jaguars and Tennessee Titans come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Jacksonville Jaguars have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Tennessee Titans have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 30 times since 2011: Jacksonville Jaguars 14, Tennessee Titans 16. The last meeting, on Jan 4, 2026, finished Tennessee Titans 7, Jacksonville Jaguars 41.
Jacksonville Jaguars are 41-29 as favourite and 49-139 as underdog, and 35-93 on the road (27% of 128 games, 2011–2026).
Tennessee Titans are 55-43 as favourite and 54-107 as underdog, and 57-72 at home (44% of 129 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | JAX | TEN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 41-29 | 55-43 |
| As underdog | 49-139 | 54-107 |
| At home | 56-75 | 57-72 |
| On the road | 35-93 | 52-79 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →
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AccuScore gives the Baltimore Ravens a 20.0% chance to win as Joe Fagnano makes his first NFL start against the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Nov 3
NFL Market Index Week 8: Jaguars Lead, Giants Post the Biggest Jump
AccuScore's Market Index shows the Jacksonville Jaguars on top in Week 8, while the New York Giants climb five spots after the largest rating change in the poll.