Ravens rookie quarterback Joe Fagnano gets his first NFL start Thursday night, 5 November, at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, and AccuScore's simulation of the matchup, which has Fagnano at quarterback, paints a tough picture for Baltimore.
Running the game 50,000 times, AccuScore gives the Jaguars a 79.8% win probability and the Ravens 20.0%, as of Wednesday afternoon. Jacksonville is 5-2, Baltimore 4-4.
The season picture shows the same gap. AccuScore projects the Jaguars for 11.9 wins with a 92.8% playoff chance. If Fagnano started every remaining game, the Ravens project for 6.65 wins and a 7.8% playoff chance, against 8.88 wins and 37.9% with Lamar Jackson.
The betting market has moved too. AccuScore's Market Index, which rates teams purely off betting prices, has the Ravens 16th of 32 for Week 8, down from 13th the previous week, with a rating of +0.22 points.
Fagnano may not hold the job for long. Jackson has a right thumb injury requiring surgery, which coach Jesse Minter called potentially season-ending, and sources told ESPN that Tyler Huntley's turf toe injury will end his season. Sources also told ESPN that the Ravens are finalizing a trade for Arizona quarterback Jacoby Brissett, expected to be completed this weekend, and that his first start could come as soon as Week 10 against the Los Angeles Chargers.
None of this is a verdict on Fagnano himself. His number rests on a tiny sample, 10-of-21 for 91 yards with an interception in relief at Buffalo, and is the least certain input.
For matchup breakdowns and win probabilities across the rest of the NFL slate, AccuScore runs every game 50,000 times before kickoff.