Louisville
5-0
Georgia Tech
2-0
Win Probability
Louisville's visit to Georgia Tech hinges on ball movement: AccuScore's simulation favors the Cardinals decisively, projecting Louisville quarterback Lincoln Kienholz to reach 200 passing yards while the Yellow Jackets' Alberto Mendoza falls to the same mark. The Cardinals' ground game, led by Isaac Brown's projected 80 rushing yards, must establish control early, as Georgia Tech's Trelain Maddox is expected to manage just 45 yards on the ground. Over 40 games shaped this way, AccuScore's leaners have won 63 percent of the time. For Georgia Tech to pull off the upset, Jordan Allen and Dalen Penson would need to exceed their combined 85 receiving-yard projection significantly while forcing Louisville into mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LOU ML
LOU -420
-3.4% EV
70.3% leads · push 6.1%
betPARX ↗
1H GT ML
GT +340
+4.9% EV
23.6% leads · push 6.1%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
LOU -8.5 -108
-5.0% EV
46.7% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
GT +8.5 -110
+0.9% EV
53.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 31.5 +102
-3.1% EV
46.4% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 31.5 -120
-0.9% EV
53.6% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | GT | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -108 | -3.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -109 | -3.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +14.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.9% |
| Book | GT | EV | LOU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +490 | +1.6% | -675 | -2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +480 | +0.7% | -650 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +500 | +2.5% | -650 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +475 | +0.3% | -675 | -2.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +425 | -4.1% | -650 | -2.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 61.5 | -105 | +0.6% | -115 | -5.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 61.5 | -108 | -0.1% | -112 | -4.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 61.5 | -105 | +0.6% | -112 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 61.5 | -105 | +0.6% | -114 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 61.5 | -105 | +0.6% | -115 | -5.0% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville 83% to beat Georgia Tech (18%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisville the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia Tech a 18% chance of beating Louisville, against 83% for Louisville. Georgia Tech are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Louisville (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia Tech (2-6 so far) project to finish 2.5–9.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisville | 7.5–4.5 | 0% | 5% |
| Georgia Tech | 2.5–9.5 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Louisville and Georgia Tech come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Louisville have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Georgia Tech have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Louisville are 76-30 as favourite and 17-40 as underdog, and 45-39 on the road (54% of 84 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LOU | GT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 76-30 | — |
| As underdog | 17-40 | — |
| At home | 54-33 | — |
| On the road | 45-39 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →