NCAAB
Columbia
2-1
Bucknell
0-3
Win Probability
Columbia travels to Bucknell as the clear favourite in this matchup between two teams separated by three wins in the season record. The simulation leans decisively toward the Lions, who will need to contain Bucknell's Luca Soroa Schaller; he has a 47% chance of exceeding 23 combined points, rebounds and assists. Columbia counters with Connor Igoe, who projects a 46% chance of surpassing 26 in the same category. The game turns on perimeter shooting and ball security—AccuScore's model suggests a close final margin, and the Bison remain live if they can force turnovers and stay efficient from distance. In similar spots across eight other matchups, the favoured side won six times.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H COLU ML
COLU -190
-0.8% EV
61.9% leads · push 3.9%
Caesars ↗
1H BUCK ML
BUCK +158
-3.9% EV
34.2% leads · push 3.9%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
COLU -3.5 -105
-2.6% EV
48.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
BUCK +3.5 -125
-3.7% EV
51.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 69.5 -115
+0.3% EV
53.8% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 69.5 -115
-6.8% EV
46.2% under
BetMGM ↗
EV is the simulation's chance times the book's price, minus 1. It is what the simulation expects, not a guaranteed return; the props archive shows what value picks actually earned.
| Book | BUCK | EV | COLU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +200 | +0.3% | -245 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +176 | -3.8% | -215 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +195 | -0.6% | -235 | -2.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +196 | -0.4% | -240 | -2.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +200 | +0.3% | -240 | -2.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +2.4% | -110 | -6.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 145.5 | -115 | +3.7% | -105 | -8.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +2.4% | -110 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 146.5 | -110 | +2.4% | -110 | -6.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 146.5 | -105 | +3.6% | -115 | -7.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 33.5%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Columbia 67% to beat Bucknell (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Columbia the more likely winner at 67%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Bucknell a 34% chance of beating Columbia, against 67% for Columbia. Bucknell are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Columbia (1-1 so far) project to finish 13.7–13.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Bucknell (0-3 so far) project to finish 8.4–22.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 3% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Columbia and Bucknell come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.