NCAAB
Pennsylvania
Illinois
Win Probability
Pennsylvania travels to face Illinois in a game where the simulation decisively favors the home side. AccuScore's model projects a sizable scoring margin, with Illinois building separation through most of the contest. The gap between these teams comes down to Illinois's ability to sustain offensive execution; Pennsylvania will need to generate stops at a rate well above its projected floor to stay competitive. In 8 similar matchups across other fixtures, AccuScore's favored side won all 8 games.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | ILL | EV | PENN | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket ↗ | -55290 | -0.4% | +308 | -48.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 169.5 | -112 | -12.4% | -108 | +8.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 168.5 | -115 | -10.5% | -105 | +6.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 169.5 | -110 | -12.1% | -110 | +7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 169.5 | -110 | -12.1% | -110 | +7.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois 99% to beat Pennsylvania (1%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Illinois the more likely winner at 99%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Illinois a 99% chance of beating Pennsylvania, against 1% for Pennsylvania. Illinois are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Pennsylvania project to finish 14.3–11.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 17% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Illinois (1-0 so far) project to finish 25.7–6.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 98% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pennsylvania | 14.3–11.7 | 18% | 17% |
| Illinois | 25.7–6.3 | 29% | 98% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How Pennsylvania and Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.