Longwood
Saint Joseph's
Win Probability
Saint Joseph's hosts Longwood in a matchup the simulation favors decisively to the home side. Jaiden Glover-Toscano has a 48% chance of exceeding 27 combined points, rebounds and assists, while Jaylen Benard projects at a 48% chance of surpassing 19—a gap that captures the offensive disparity. The game hinges on whether Saint Joseph's can convert that advantage into sustained execution; across eight similar win-probability shapes, the favored side won seven. Longwood would need to suppress Saint Joseph's depth and lean heavily on secondary contributors like MJ Williams, who sits at a 46% chance of beating 19 combined.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | JOES | EV | LONG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -410 | -1.2% | +320 | -4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -430 | -1.7% | +340 | -2.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -425 | -1.6% | +320 | -4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -450 | -2.1% | +340 | -2.5% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -450 | -2.1% | +340 | -2.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 149.5 | -108 | -1.9% | -112 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 149.5 | -106 | -1.4% | -114 | -3.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -1.2% | -115 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 149.5 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 149.5 | -105 | -1.2% | -115 | -3.3% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NCAAB
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Joseph's 78% to beat Longwood (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Joseph's the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Joseph's a 78% chance of beating Longwood, against 22% for Longwood. Saint Joseph's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Longwood project to finish 16.1–12.9 and make the NCAA Tournament in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Joseph's project to finish 16.7–12.3 and make the NCAA Tournament in 14% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Longwood | 16.1–12.9 | 11% | 11% |
| Saint Joseph's | 16.7–12.3 | 6% | 14% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →