NCAAB
North Dakota State
Saint Mary's
Win Probability
North Dakota State travels to face Saint Mary's in a game where the simulation decisively favours the home side. The Gaels' depth in scoring should prove decisive; across 50,000 simulations, Saint Mary's projects to a commanding advantage in pace and volume. North Dakota State will need to find consistent offensive rhythm to stay close, but the model has favoured the Saint Mary's side in 8 of 8 similar matchups from its historical record. For the Bison to pull off the upset, their perimeter shooting would need to approach its ceiling while containing Saint Mary's transition game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | SMC | EV | NDSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1050 | -2.5% | +675 | +1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1250 | -3.2% | +740 | +5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -1100 | -2.7% | +675 | +1.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1200 | -3.0% | +700 | +3.2% |
| Fanatics ↗ | -1000 | -2.3% | +650 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -5.2% | -115 | +0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 148.5 | -115 | -7.1% | -105 | +2.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -5.2% | -115 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 148.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 148.5 | -105 | -5.2% | -115 | +0.6% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's 87% to beat North Dakota State (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Saint Mary's the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Saint Mary's a 87% chance of beating North Dakota State, against 13% for North Dakota State. Saint Mary's are at home and favoured on these numbers.
North Dakota State project to finish 17.4–11.6 and make the NCAA Tournament in 31% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Saint Mary's (1-0 so far) project to finish 23.3–6.7 and make the NCAA Tournament in 68% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Conference title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Dakota State | 17.4–11.6 | 36% | 31% |
| Saint Mary's | 23.3–6.7 | 50% | 68% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAB team's projection →
How North Dakota State and Saint Mary's come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Saint Mary's have won 1 of their last 1 (W, most recent first).