NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
6-2
Sacramento Kings
1-6
Win Probability
Los Angeles Lakers travel to Sacramento Kings in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the visitors. Domantas Sabonis projects to have a 46% chance of exceeding 33 points, rebounds and assists, while Luka Doncic has a 48% chance of surpassing 47 in the same combined category. The game turns on Sacramento's ability to generate enough offensive load-sharing; if the Kings cannot get contributions across multiple scorers, Los Angeles's depth should prove decisive. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore has gone 7 for 8 across recent similar matchups. Sacramento would need to upset that lean significantly and manufacture stops at scale for the home side to steal it.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LAL ML
LAL -345
-3.8% EV
69.2% leads · push 3.1%
Betfair ↗
1H SAC ML
SAC +225
-3.4% EV
27.7% leads · push 3.1%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
LAL -6.5 -120
-5.4% EV
48.6% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Spread
SAC +6.5 -120
-2.9% EV
51.3% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 113.5 -118
+13.5% EV
68.8% over
William Hill ↗
1H Total
U 113.5 -118
-21.2% EV
31.2% under
William Hill ↗
| Book | Line | SAC | EV | LAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +11 | -101 | +0.7% | -111 | -3.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | +11.5 | -111 | -0.3% | -111 | -4.7% |
| Betano ↗ | +11.5 | -111 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.5% |
| bet365 ↗ | +11 | -109 | -1.1% | -125 | -5.7% |
| Novig ↗ | +11.5 | -102 | +1.8% | -102 | -2.8% |
| Book | SAC | EV | LAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +456 | +11.7% | -564 | -4.2% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +434 | +9.3% | -513 | -3.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 234.5 | -109 | +0.0% | -105 | -3.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 234.5 | -116 | -1.4% | -106 | -3.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 234.5 | -114 | -1.0% | -108 | -4.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 234.5 | -111 | -0.4% | -110 | -4.4% |
| William Hill ↗ | 234.5 | -118 | -1.8% | -118 | -5.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers 78% to beat Sacramento Kings (22%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Sacramento Kings a 22% chance of beating Los Angeles Lakers, against 78% for Los Angeles Lakers. Sacramento Kings are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Los Angeles Lakers (6-2 so far) project to finish 47.1–34.9 and make the playoffs in 69% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Sacramento Kings (1-6 so far) project to finish 21.8–60.2 and make the playoffs in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Lakers | 47.1–34.9 | 41% | 69% |
| Sacramento Kings | 21.8–60.2 | 1% | 4% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Los Angeles Lakers and Sacramento Kings come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Los Angeles Lakers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
Sacramento Kings have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 61 times since 2010: Los Angeles Lakers 31, Sacramento Kings 30. The last meeting, on Mar 1, 2026, finished Sacramento Kings 104, Los Angeles Lakers 128.
Los Angeles Lakers are 430-220 as favourite and 212-440 as underdog, and 284-396 on the road (42% of 680 games, 2010–2026).
Sacramento Kings are 229-166 as favourite and 247-585 as underdog, and 287-358 at home (44% of 645 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | LAL | SAC |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 430-220 | 229-166 |
| As underdog | 212-440 | 247-585 |
| At home | 390-298 | 287-358 |
| On the road | 284-396 | 226-421 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →