NBA
Dallas Mavericks
4-3
San Antonio Spurs
5-2
Win Probability
San Antonio Spurs host Dallas Mavericks in a matchup the simulation favours decisively to the home side. The game hinges on whether Dallas can generate enough perimeter scoring to stay close: Cooper Flagg has a 49% chance of exceeding 31 points, rebounds and assists, while Kyrie Irving sits at 48% for the same threshold of 24. Victor Wembanyama projects at 49% to clear 37 combined, and De'Aaron Fox at 48% to beat 25. On games shaped like this one — where the model leans heavily toward the home team — AccuScore's record stands at 80% wins across 820 graded fixtures. For Dallas to upset that lean, its perimeter weapons would need to sustain efficient scoring against San Antonio's depth.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H DAL ML
DAL +225
-7.1% EV
25.5% leads · push 3.0%
Betfair ↗
1H SA ML
SA -345
-2.4% EV
71.5% leads · push 3.0%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | SA | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -11.5 | -101 | -1.3% | -111 | -1.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | -11.5 | -111 | -3.5% | -111 | -1.4% |
| Betano ↗ | -11.5 | -110 | -3.3% | -111 | -1.4% |
| bet365 ↗ | -11.5 | -108 | -2.9% | -114 | -2.0% |
| Novig ↗ | -11.5 | +106 | +0.4% | -111 | -1.4% |
| Book | SA | EV | DAL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -490 | -1.2% | +426 | -0.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -513 | -1.5% | +434 | +0.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 227.5 | -114 | -2.0% | -103 | -1.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 227.5 | -111 | -1.4% | -111 | -3.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 227.5 | -114 | -2.0% | -108 | -2.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 227.5 | -112 | -1.6% | -109 | -3.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 227.5 | -118 | -2.8% | -118 | -4.8% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs 81% to beat Dallas Mavericks (19%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San Antonio Spurs the more likely winner at 81%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San Antonio Spurs a 81% chance of beating Dallas Mavericks, against 19% for Dallas Mavericks. San Antonio Spurs are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Dallas Mavericks (4-3 so far) project to finish 35.6–46.4 and make the playoffs in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San Antonio Spurs (5-2 so far) project to finish 54.5–27.5 and make the playoffs in 87% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dallas Mavericks | 35.6–46.4 | 3% | 30% |
| San Antonio Spurs | 54.5–27.5 | 40% | 87% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Dallas Mavericks and San Antonio Spurs come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Dallas Mavericks have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
San Antonio Spurs have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 71 times since 2010: Dallas Mavericks 29, San Antonio Spurs 42. The last meeting, on Oct 24, 2026, finished San Antonio Spurs 122, Dallas Mavericks 106.
Dallas Mavericks are 440-218 as favourite and 227-420 as underdog, and 310-380 on the road (45% of 690 games, 2010–2026).
San Antonio Spurs are 640-213 as favourite and 162-312 as underdog, and 467-225 at home (67% of 692 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | DAL | SA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 440-218 | 640-213 |
| As underdog | 227-420 | 162-312 |
| At home | 390-293 | 467-225 |
| On the road | 310-380 | 350-347 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →