NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
5-1
Phoenix Suns
1-4
Win Probability
The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Phoenix to face the Suns in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the visitors. Damian Lillard has a 49% chance of exceeding 26 points, rebounds and assists, while Devin Booker sits at 47% for the same threshold—a marginal separation that reflects how tightly the model sees this contest. The game hinges on depth: Portland's balanced scoring has five players projected with at least a 45% chance to clear their respective marks, while Phoenix leans harder on Booker and Miles Bridges at 47% each. AccuScore's record on games shaped like this one stands at 44% over thousands of attempts. For the Suns to emerge, they would need one of their secondary options to outrun projection—Jalen Green at 49% offers the likeliest path.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H POR ML
POR -149
-2.1% EV
55.6% leads · push 2.9%
Betfair ↗
1H PHO ML
PHO +110
-5.0% EV
41.5% leads · push 2.9%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | PHO | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +3 | -103 | -4.3% | -109 | +1.4% |
| Betfair ↗ | +3.5 | -111 | -4.6% | -111 | -0.4% |
| Betano ↗ | +3.5 | -115 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | +3 | -109 | -5.5% | -120 | -0.7% |
| Novig ↗ | +3.5 | -111 | -4.6% | +106 | +3.8% |
| Book | PHO | EV | POR | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +124 | -4.2% | -155 | -1.4% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +127 | -3.6% | -145 | -0.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 227.5 | -108 | -3.9% | -106 | +0.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 227.5 | -111 | -4.5% | -111 | -0.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 227.5 | -114 | -5.0% | -108 | +0.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 227.5 | -111 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | 227.5 | -118 | -5.8% | -118 | -1.9% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers 59% to beat Phoenix Suns (41%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Portland Trail Blazers the more likely winner at 59%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Phoenix Suns a 41% chance of beating Portland Trail Blazers, against 59% for Portland Trail Blazers. Phoenix Suns are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Portland Trail Blazers (5-1 so far) project to finish 50.3–31.7 and make the playoffs in 78% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Phoenix Suns (1-4 so far) project to finish 35.3–46.7 and make the playoffs in 30% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portland Trail Blazers | 50.3–31.7 | 30% | 78% |
| Phoenix Suns | 35.3–46.7 | 11% | 30% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Portland Trail Blazers and Phoenix Suns come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Portland Trail Blazers have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
Phoenix Suns have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 59 times since 2010: Portland Trail Blazers 31, Phoenix Suns 28. The last meeting, on Oct 21, 2026, finished Phoenix Suns 83, Portland Trail Blazers 124.
Portland Trail Blazers are 416-181 as favourite and 219-469 as underdog, and 274-411 on the road (40% of 685 games, 2010–2026).
Phoenix Suns are 370-194 as favourite and 217-483 as underdog, and 354-315 at home (53% of 669 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | POR | PHO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 416-181 | 370-194 |
| As underdog | 219-469 | 217-483 |
| At home | 398-275 | 354-315 |
| On the road | 274-411 | 268-394 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →