Utah Jazz
1-6
New Orleans Pelicans
3-4
Win Probability
The New Orleans Pelicans host the Utah Jazz in a matchup where the simulation leans clearly toward the home side. New Orleans' offensive weapons will be crucial: Zion Williamson has a 49% chance of exceeding 30 points, rebounds and assists, while Dejounte Murray carries a 47% chance of surpassing 29 in the same categories. Utah's Lauri Markkanen projects to have a 50% chance of topping 24 points and rebounds, but the Jazz will need to generate consistent scoring depth to keep pace. On games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's model has won 55% of the time across 1,231 graded contests. For the Jazz to pull off the upset, they would need complementary scoring from multiple lineup spots while containing New Orleans' dual threats in transition.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UT ML
UT +125
-7.1% EV
36.6% leads · push 3.4%
Betfair ↗
1H NO ML
NO -175
-1.2% EV
60.0% leads · push 3.4%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UT +2.5 -120
-6.7% EV
47.2% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Spread
NO -2.5 -120
-1.6% EV
52.8% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 114.5 -118
+9.5% EV
64.4% over
William Hill ↗
1H Total
U 114.5 -118
-17.1% EV
35.6% under
William Hill ↗
| Book | Line | NO | EV | UT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -5 | -114 | +1.1% | -101 | -4.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | -5.5 | -111 | +0.1% | -111 | -5.0% |
| Betano ↗ | -5.5 | -108 | +0.7% | -114 | -5.6% |
| bet365 ↗ | -5 | -125 | -1.0% | -109 | -6.1% |
| Novig ↗ | -5.5 | +102 | +3.2% | -104 | -3.6% |
| Book | NO | EV | UT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -218 | -1.7% | +181 | -2.5% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -214 | -1.4% | +185 | -1.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 234.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -106 | -2.3% |
| Betfair ↗ | 234.5 | -111 | -1.6% | -111 | -3.3% |
| Betano ↗ | 235.5 | -108 | -3.0% | -114 | -1.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | 234.5 | -132 | -5.3% | -101 | -1.1% |
| William Hill ↗ | 235.5 | -118 | -4.9% | -118 | -2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes New Orleans Pelicans 66% to beat Utah Jazz (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Orleans Pelicans the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Orleans Pelicans a 66% chance of beating Utah Jazz, against 34% for Utah Jazz. New Orleans Pelicans are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Utah Jazz (1-6 so far) project to finish 26.8–55.2 and make the playoffs in 11% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Orleans Pelicans (3-4 so far) project to finish 37.0–45.0 and make the playoffs in 35% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Utah Jazz | 26.8–55.2 | 1% | 11% |
| New Orleans Pelicans | 37.0–45.0 | 3% | 35% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Utah Jazz and New Orleans Pelicans come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Utah Jazz have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
New Orleans Pelicans have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 57 times since 2010: Utah Jazz 32, New Orleans Pelicans 25. The last meeting, on Oct 23, 2026, finished New Orleans Pelicans 119, Utah Jazz 120.
Utah Jazz are 420-188 as favourite and 195-471 as underdog, and 260-410 on the road (39% of 670 games, 2010–2026).
New Orleans Pelicans are 286-196 as favourite and 250-519 as underdog, and 331-328 at home (50% of 659 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | UT | NO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 420-188 | 286-196 |
| As underdog | 195-471 | 250-519 |
| At home | 386-283 | 331-328 |
| On the road | 260-410 | 237-420 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →