Indiana Pacers
2-6
Memphis Grizzlies
6-1
Win Probability
The Indiana Pacers visit Memphis Grizzlies in a matchup that heavily favors the home side. Pascal Siakam projects to exceed 38 combined points, rebounds and assists in 48% of simulations, while Cameron Boozer clears 26 in half of them—a gap that mirrors Memphis's overall depth advantage. The game turns on whether Indiana can sustain offensive execution on the road; the simulation gives them a 33% win probability. AccuScore's model has won 55% of games shaped like this one across its track record. For the Pacers to pull the upset, Andrew Nembhard would need to approach his 31-point threshold while the Grizzlies' role players underperform their projections.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H IND ML
IND +150
-5.2% EV
34.4% leads · push 3.6%
Betfair ↗
1H MEM ML
MEM -200
-1.7% EV
62.0% leads · push 3.6%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
IND +3.5 -125
-5.9% EV
48.9% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Spread
MEM -3.5 -110
-1.3% EV
51.0% covers
Betfair ↗
1H Total
O 111.5 -118
+12.7% EV
67.9% over
William Hill ↗
1H Total
U 111.5 -118
-20.3% EV
32.1% under
William Hill ↗
| Book | Line | MEM | EV | IND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -7.5 | -104 | -4.8% | -108 | +1.9% |
| Betfair ↗ | -6.5 | -111 | -2.0% | -111 | -3.0% |
| Betano ↗ | -6.5 | -115 | -2.8% | -108 | -2.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | -6 | -125 | -2.9% | -106 | -3.4% |
| Novig ↗ | -7.5 | +104 | -3.0% | -108 | +1.9% |
| Book | MEM | EV | IND | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -239 | -1.3% | +208 | -1.6% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -258 | -2.4% | +222 | +0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 228.5 | -112 | +4.7% | -104 | -8.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 229.5 | -110 | +3.1% | -110 | -7.6% |
| Betano ↗ | 229.5 | -108 | +3.5% | -114 | -8.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | 229 | -125 | +1.1% | -105 | -7.7% |
| William Hill ↗ | 229.5 | -118 | +1.4% | -118 | -9.0% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies 69% to beat Indiana Pacers (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Memphis Grizzlies the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Memphis Grizzlies a 69% chance of beating Indiana Pacers, against 31% for Indiana Pacers. Memphis Grizzlies are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Indiana Pacers (2-6 so far) project to finish 30.4–51.6 and make the playoffs in 24% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Memphis Grizzlies (6-1 so far) project to finish 40.4–41.6 and make the playoffs in 45% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indiana Pacers | 30.4–51.6 | 3% | 24% |
| Memphis Grizzlies | 40.4–41.6 | 7% | 45% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Indiana Pacers have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Memphis Grizzlies have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2010: Indiana Pacers 13, Memphis Grizzlies 18. The last meeting, on Mar 1, 2026, finished Memphis Grizzlies 125, Indiana Pacers 106.
Indiana Pacers are 451-226 as favourite and 227-416 as underdog, and 295-399 on the road (43% of 694 games, 2010–2026).
Memphis Grizzlies are 440-194 as favourite and 229-435 as underdog, and 408-273 at home (60% of 681 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | IND | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 451-226 | 440-194 |
| As underdog | 227-416 | 229-435 |
| At home | 411-280 | 408-273 |
| On the road | 295-399 | 297-382 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →