NBA
Atlanta Hawks
4-4
Washington Wizards
4-3
Win Probability
Atlanta Hawks travel to Washington to face the Wizards in a matchup the simulation favours slightly toward the visitors. The projection hinges on perimeter scoring: both teams figure to push pace, and how efficiently each converts three-point looks will separate them. AccuScore's model has returned 1.4% on win-probability calls shaped like this one across 8,382 Eastern Conference games, winning 41% of them. In similar spots across eight other matchups, the favoured side won four times. Washington would need to clamp Atlanta's transition game and force half-court sets to shift the calculus.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ATL ML
ATL -149
-4.2% EV
52.8% leads · push 3.4%
Betfair ↗
1H WAS ML
WAS +110
-2.3% EV
43.8% leads · push 3.4%
Betfair ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | WAS | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +2 | +100 | -3.0% | -114 | -0.1% |
| Betfair ↗ | +2.5 | -111 | -4.0% | -111 | -1.0% |
| Betano ↗ | +2.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -108 | -0.3% |
| bet365 ↗ | +2 | -110 | -5.1% | -120 | -1.2% |
| Novig ↗ | +2.5 | -102 | -2.1% | -104 | +0.6% |
| Book | WAS | EV | ATL | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | +114 | -3.0% | -143 | -2.3% |
| Polymarket ↗ | +121 | -1.5% | -140 | -1.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 232 | -112 | +0.1% | -104 | -3.8% |
| Betfair ↗ | 232.5 | -106 | +0.3% | -116 | -5.1% |
| Betano ↗ | 231.5 | -115 | +0.5% | -108 | -5.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 232 | -125 | -2.3% | -105 | -4.0% |
| William Hill ↗ | 231.5 | -125 | -1.4% | -110 | -6.1% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks 56% to beat Washington Wizards (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Atlanta Hawks the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington Wizards a 44% chance of beating Atlanta Hawks, against 56% for Atlanta Hawks. Washington Wizards are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Atlanta Hawks (4-4 so far) project to finish 45.8–36.2 and make the playoffs in 74% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington Wizards (4-3 so far) project to finish 31.9–50.1 and make the playoffs in 27% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlanta Hawks | 45.8–36.2 | 42% | 74% |
| Washington Wizards | 31.9–50.1 | 7% | 27% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Atlanta Hawks and Washington Wizards come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Atlanta Hawks have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Washington Wizards have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 73 times since 2010: Atlanta Hawks 44, Washington Wizards 29. The last meeting, on Feb 26, 2026, finished Washington Wizards 96, Atlanta Hawks 126.
Atlanta Hawks are 403-214 as favourite and 246-446 as underdog, and 288-404 on the road (42% of 692 games, 2010–2026).
Washington Wizards are 259-165 as favourite and 240-598 as underdog, and 318-345 at home (48% of 663 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | ATL | WAS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 403-214 | 259-165 |
| As underdog | 246-446 | 240-598 |
| At home | 395-288 | 318-345 |
| On the road | 288-404 | 212-452 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →