Miami Heat
2-5
117
Los Angeles Lakers
6-2
138
| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 30 | 42 | 21 | 24 | 117 |
| LAL | 37 | 42 | 32 | 27 | 138 |
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
| Book | Line | LAL | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | -2 | -104 | +0.8% | -108 | -3.5% |
| Betfair ↗ | -2.5 | -111 | -2.1% | -111 | -2.9% |
| Betano ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -1.9% | -111 | -2.9% |
| bet365 ↗ | -2 | -125 | -3.2% | -109 | -3.7% |
| Novig ↗ | -2.5 | +106 | +1.9% | -113 | -3.3% |
| Book | LAL | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi ↗ | -143 | -3.1% | +114 | -2.1% |
| Polymarket ↗ | -128 | -0.8% | +111 | -2.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 237 | -108 | -2.6% | -106 | -0.6% |
| Betfair ↗ | 237.5 | -111 | -4.5% | -111 | -0.5% |
| Betano ↗ | 236.5 | -114 | -2.7% | -108 | -2.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | 236 | -125 | -3.6% | -105 | -2.6% |
| William Hill ↗ | 236.5 | -125 | -4.6% | -110 | -2.7% |
Share of bets (grey) and of money (green) on each side, per source. Sportsbook figures count tickets; Polymarket counts traders and Kalshi counts trades. Sources are shown separately, never averaged.
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NBA
Final · MIA 117–138 LAL ·
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers 55% to beat Miami Heat (45%). Final score: Miami Heat 117, Los Angeles Lakers 138.
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Los Angeles Lakers the more likely winner at 55%. The game finished Miami Heat 117, Los Angeles Lakers 138.
AccuScore's simulation gives Los Angeles Lakers a 55% chance of beating Miami Heat, against 45% for Miami Heat. It finished Los Angeles Lakers 138, Miami Heat 117.
Miami Heat (2-5 so far) project to finish 39.7–42.3 and make the playoffs in 55% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Los Angeles Lakers (6-2 so far) project to finish 47.1–34.9 and make the playoffs in 69% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Heat | 39.7–42.3 | 21% | 55% |
| Los Angeles Lakers | 47.1–34.9 | 41% | 69% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NBA team's projection →
How Miami Heat and Los Angeles Lakers come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Heat have won 2 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Los Angeles Lakers have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 37 times since 2010: Miami Heat 20, Los Angeles Lakers 17. The last meeting, on Mar 19, 2026, finished Los Angeles Lakers 134, Miami Heat 126.
Miami Heat are 588-273 as favourite and 208-300 as underdog, and 364-355 on the road (51% of 719 games, 2010–2026).
Los Angeles Lakers are 430-220 as favourite and 212-440 as underdog, and 390-298 at home (57% of 688 games, 2010–2026).
| Record | MIA | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 588-273 | 430-220 |
| As underdog | 208-300 | 212-440 |
| At home | 470-245 | 390-298 |
| On the road | 364-355 | 284-396 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NBA odds have moved →