Arsenal FC
Lille
Win Probability
Moneyline
ARS
84.2% win prob
Moneyline
LIL
4.7% win prob
Projected score
3.5 – 0.9
Arsenal FC travel to Lille in the Champions League as heavy favorites, with the simulation decisively backing the visitors. The outcome hinges on whether Lille can limit Arsenal's attacking threat; the model projects over 4 goals combined in 63% of scenarios. On win-probability calls shaped like this one across eight comparable matchups, the favored away side won five times. AccuScore's historical record on similar games leans toward caution—a 90% strike rate on win calls versus just 48% on totals in this range. For Lille to stay competitive, they would need to frustrate Arsenal's creativity and convert the rare chances that come their way.
Champions League
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC 84% to win, Lille 5%, with a 11% chance of a draw. Projected score: Arsenal FC 3.5, Lille 0.9. The single most likely scoreline is 3–0 (9% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC the more likely winner at 84%, with a 11% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Lille a 5% chance of beating Arsenal FC, with 84% for Arsenal FC and 11% for a draw. Lille are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Arsenal FC 3.5, Lille 0.9, with 3-0 the single most likely scoreline.