Nottingham Forest
Crystal Palace
Win Probability
Moneyline
NFO
+176
40.5% win prob
EV +5.9%
1xBet
Draw
Draw
+247
34% prob
EV +8.6%
1xBet
Moneyline
CRY
+174
25.7% win prob
EV -14.8%
1xBet
Projected score
1.0 – 0.8
Nottingham Forest travel to Crystal Palace for a matchup the simulation clearly favours the visitors. The model projects a low-scoring affair where set pieces and efficiency in the final third will decide it; across eight similar games in AccuScore's record, the favoured side won just half the time. Forest's attacking threat and Palace's ability to stay compact will be central to how this unfolds. For Palace to overturn the projection, they would need to convert their chances at a much higher rate than the model expects, since Forest are given just 1.0 projected goals.
| Book | NFO | EV | Draw | EV | CRY | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +170 | +4.7% | +240 | +7.5% | +167 | -15.7% |
| Betfair ↗ | +170 | +4.7% | +220 | +4.1% | +163 | -16.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +170 | +4.7% | +200 | +0.7% | +162 | -16.3% |
| William Hill ↗ | +162 | +3.1% | +220 | +4.1% | +162 | -16.3% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +163 | +3.3% | +230 | +5.8% | +155 | -17.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 2.5 | +101 | -23.7% | -115 | +19.0% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -105 | -24.5% | -133 | +14.7% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | +100 | -23.9% | -125 | +16.5% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 2.5 | -109 | -24.9% | -132 | +14.9% |
| Marathon ↗ | 2.5 | +103 | -23.5% | -125 | +16.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 33.8%
EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Nottingham Forest 41% to win, Crystal Palace 26%, with a 34% chance of a draw. Projected score: Nottingham Forest 1.0, Crystal Palace 0.8. The single most likely scoreline is 0–0 (17% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nottingham Forest the more likely winner at 41%, with a 34% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Crystal Palace a 26% chance of beating Nottingham Forest, with 41% for Nottingham Forest and 34% for a draw. Crystal Palace are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Nottingham Forest 1.0, Crystal Palace 0.8, with 0-0 the single most likely scoreline.