Leeds United
Arsenal FC
Win Probability
Moneyline
LEE
+725
5.9% win prob
EV -25.7%
Betano
Draw
Draw
+410
14% prob
EV -14.0%
Pinnacle
Moneyline
ARS
-227
80.0% win prob
EV +7.6%
1xBet
Projected score
0.6 – 2.5
Arsenal hosts Leeds United in a matchup where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Over 10,000 simulations, Arsenal's attacking threat projects decisively ahead, with the model expecting a comfortable margin. Leeds United's path to an upset runs through containing Arsenal's threat in open play; in similar win-probability shapes across eight other games, the favoured side won six. AccuScore's win-probability calls at this confidence level have returned 71% over 1,159 prior games. For Leeds United to escape, they would need to weather Arsenal's pressure and convert limited chances into goals.
| Book | LEE | EV | Draw | EV | ARS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | +704 | -26.3% | +410 | -14.0% | -263 | +5.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | +700 | -26.4% | +400 | -14.8% | -303 | +3.2% |
| bet365 ↗ | +650 | -27.9% | +350 | -18.3% | -263 | +5.2% |
| William Hill ↗ | +650 | -27.9% | +360 | -17.6% | -278 | +4.4% |
| BetVictor ↗ | +700 | -26.4% | +360 | -17.6% | -278 | +4.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle ↗ | 3 | +135 | +6.5% | -161 | -7.2% |
| Betfair ↗ | 2.5 | -154 | +0.3% | +110 | -9.0% |
| bet365 ↗ | 2.5 | -137 | +2.7% | +110 | -9.0% |
| BetVictor ↗ | 3 | +115 | +2.7% | -167 | -7.6% |
| Marathon ↗ | 3 | +126 | +4.8% | -172 | -8.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 80.0%
EPL
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC 80% to win, Leeds United 6%, with a 14% chance of a draw. Projected score: Leeds United 0.6, Arsenal FC 2.5. The single most likely scoreline is 0–2 (14% of simulations).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arsenal FC the more likely winner at 80%, with a 14% chance of a draw. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arsenal FC a 80% chance of beating Leeds United, with 6% for Leeds United and 14% for a draw. Arsenal FC are at home and favoured on these numbers.
AccuScore projects Leeds United 0.6, Arsenal FC 2.5, with 0-2 the single most likely scoreline.