NFL
Arizona Cardinals
3-5
Seattle Seahawks
4-4
Win Probability
The Arizona Cardinals travel to face the Seattle Seahawks in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Seattle's passing game projects as the decisive factor: Sam Darnold is expected to exceed 260 yards, while Jaxon Smith-Njigba should clear 95 receiving yards, substantially outpacing Arizona's offensive projections. Gardner Minshew II is projected for just 210 passing yards with Trey McBride limited to 65 receiving yards. AccuScore's model has graded eight prior games with similar win-probability shapes, winning six of them. For Arizona to pull off the upset, its offense would need to function well above projection while holding Seattle well below its expected output.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ARI ML
ARI +360
+3.9% EV
21.9% leads · push 7.0%
theScore Bet ↗
1H SEA ML
SEA -375
-1.5% EV
71.1% leads · push 7.0%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
ARI +6.5 +106
+0.9% EV
49.4% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Spread
SEA -6.5 -115
-2.7% EV
50.6% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 20.5 -110
+1.5% EV
53.9% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 20.5 -102
-4.4% EV
46.1% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | SEA | EV | ARI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -12.5 | -105 | -4.0% | -115 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -11.5 | -114 | -4.0% | -106 | -0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -12 | -110 | -4.1% | -108 | +0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -12.5 | -105 | -4.0% | -113 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -12.5 | -105 | -4.0% | -115 | -0.6% |
| Book | SEA | EV | ARI | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -700 | -2.6% | +500 | +0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -700 | -2.6% | +500 | +0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -650 | -2.1% | +500 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -675 | -2.4% | +475 | -1.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -800 | -3.3% | +500 | +0.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 41.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 41.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 41.5 | -108 | +1.1% | -110 | -5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 41.5 | -111 | +0.5% | -111 | -5.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 41.5 | -110 | +0.7% | -110 | -5.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Seattle Seahawks 83% to beat Arizona Cardinals (17%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Seattle Seahawks the more likely winner at 83%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Seattle Seahawks a 83% chance of beating Arizona Cardinals, against 17% for Arizona Cardinals. Seattle Seahawks are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Arizona Cardinals (3-5 so far) project to finish 6.8–10.2 and make the playoffs in 8% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Seattle Seahawks (4-4 so far) project to finish 9.7–7.3 and make the playoffs in 54% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 6.8–10.2 | 1% | 8% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 9.7–7.3 | 14% | 54% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NFL team's projection →
How Arizona Cardinals and Seattle Seahawks come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Arizona Cardinals have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Seattle Seahawks have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 31 times since 2011: Arizona Cardinals 9, Seattle Seahawks 21, 1 tied. The last meeting, on Sep 20, 2026, finished Seattle Seahawks 31, Arizona Cardinals 7.
Arizona Cardinals are 57-36-1 as favourite and 55-104-1 as underdog, and 53-78 on the road (40% of 131 games, 2011–2026).
Seattle Seahawks are 129-47 as favourite and 41-54-1 as underdog, and 91-44 at home (67% of 135 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ARI | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 57-36-1 | 129-47 |
| As underdog | 55-104-1 | 41-54-1 |
| At home | 60-64-2 | 91-44 |
| On the road | 53-78 | 79-57-1 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NFL odds have moved →