Wyoming
5-0
UNLV
5-0
Win Probability
Wyoming travels to face UNLV in a matchup between undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the Rebels decisively. Jackson Arnold projects for 170 passing yards against a Wyoming defence that will lean heavily on Tyler Hughes, who the model expects to produce 160 yards through the air. The game turns on UNLV's ground game: Jai'Den Thomas is projected for 65 rushing yards, substantially more than Markell Holman's 50, and that advantage in the trenches underpins the home side's win probability. AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8 previous games with this same win-probability shape. For Wyoming to pull the upset, it would need to shut down the Rebels' rushing attack and keep the game tight enough for Hughes to engineer a late score.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H WYO ML
WYO +170
-2.3% EV
32.5% leads · push 7.8%
DraftKings ↗
1H UNLV ML
UNLV -185
-0.1% EV
59.7% leads · push 7.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
WYO +3.5 -110
-3.0% EV
49.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
UNLV -3.5 -106
-0.7% EV
50.8% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -125
-7.2% EV
47.5% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +105
+3.8% EV
52.5% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | UNLV | EV | WYO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6 | -110 | +0.8% | -110 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | +0.3% | -115 | -4.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6 | -110 | +0.8% | -108 | -4.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6 | -113 | +0.2% | -107 | -4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.7% |
| Book | UNLV | EV | WYO | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -230 | -0.6% | +190 | -4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -235 | -0.9% | +190 | -4.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -0.9% | +190 | -4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -235 | -0.9% | +192 | -4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -225 | -0.2% | +190 | -4.9% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -9.7% | -115 | +4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -10.6% | -110 | +6.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -9.7% | -112 | +5.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48.5 | -110 | -10.6% | -110 | +6.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -9.7% | -115 | +4.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.5%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV 69% to beat Wyoming (31%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UNLV the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UNLV a 69% chance of beating Wyoming, against 31% for Wyoming. UNLV are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Wyoming (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UNLV (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.4–4.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Wyoming and UNLV come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Wyoming have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
UNLV have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 6 times since 2011: Wyoming 4, UNLV 2. The last meeting, on Oct 4, 2025, finished UNLV 31, Wyoming 17.
Wyoming are 37-16 as favourite and 27-67 as underdog, and 29-54 on the road (35% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
UNLV are 24-21 as favourite and 24-79 as underdog, and 31-41 at home (43% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WYO | UNLV |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 37-16 | 24-21 |
| As underdog | 27-67 | 24-79 |
| At home | 38-35 | 31-41 |
| On the road | 29-54 | 25-61 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →