Texas State
4-0
Oregon State
5-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Texas State team travels to face an undefeated Oregon State side in a matchup where the simulation favours the home team clearly. Oregon State quarterback Braden Atkinson is projected to throw for 240 yards, while Texas State's Brad Jackson projects to 200—a gap that reflects where the model sees the game decided through the air. The carry-over work falls to Oregon State running back AJ Newberry at 60 yards and Texas State's Torrance Burgess Jr. at 65, meaning this game turns on whether Texas State's ground game can sustain drives against Oregon State's advantage in passing volume. AccuScore's simulation favours home teams in this win-probability range at a 57% clip across 79 graded games, though that record came with a -2.6% return. Texas State would need to impose its rushing attack while forcing Oregon State into inefficiency through the air to upset the projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TXST ML
TXST +165
+0.8% EV
35.6% leads · push 7.1%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H ORST ML
ORST -175
-1.5% EV
57.2% leads · push 7.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TXST +3.5 -110
-2.5% EV
49.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
ORST -3.5 -106
-1.2% EV
50.2% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 37.5 -105
-4.8% EV
46.3% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 37.5 -112
+0.8% EV
53.7% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | ORST | EV | TXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6.5 | -112 | -4.9% | -108 | +0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -115 | -5.5% | -105 | +1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6.5 | -112 | -4.9% | -105 | +1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6.5 | -115 | -5.5% | -104 | +1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -6.5 | -110 | -4.5% | -110 | -0.0% |
| Book | ORST | EV | TXST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -250 | -3.6% | +205 | +1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -245 | -3.3% | +202 | +0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -2.7% | +200 | +0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -250 | -3.6% | +205 | +1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -240 | -3.0% | +200 | +0.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 72.5 | -108 | -2.2% | -112 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 72.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 72.5 | -108 | -2.2% | -110 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 72.5 | -108 | -2.2% | -112 | -2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 72.5 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 33.7%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State 66% to beat Texas State (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Oregon State the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Oregon State a 66% chance of beating Texas State, against 34% for Texas State. Oregon State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Texas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Oregon State (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.7–4.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Texas State | 5.8–5.2 | <1% | <1% |
| Oregon State | 6.7–4.3 | 18% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Texas State and Oregon State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Texas State have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Oregon State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Texas State are 25-16 as favourite and 16-84 as underdog, and 17-61 on the road (22% of 78 games, 2012–2026).
Oregon State are 28-19 as favourite and 24-75 as underdog, and 32-43 at home (43% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TXST | ORST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 25-16 | 28-19 |
| As underdog | 16-84 | 24-75 |
| At home | 29-42 | 32-43 |
| On the road | 17-61 | 21-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →