Fresno State
5-0
Utah State
3-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Fresno State travels to undefeated Utah State in a matchup where the simulation slightly favors the visitors. The game hinges on passing efficiency: Jayden Mandal projects for 170 yards through the air, while McCae Hillstead is expected to manage just 50, a disparity that could prove decisive in a tight contest. Javen Jacobs offers some balance on the ground with a projected 55 rushing yards. On games shaped like this one, AccuScore's model has won just 35% of the time over 82 graded matchups. Utah State would need to lean heavily on Javon Robinson's receiving production and control the clock to upset the favored visitors.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H FRES ML
FRES -120
-0.3% EV
49.9% leads · push 8.1%
BetMGM ↗
1H USU ML
USU +110
-1.8% EV
42.1% leads · push 8.1%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
FRES -0.5 -102
-0.6% EV
49.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
USU +0.5 -115
-3.1% EV
50.1% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 20.5 -112
-1.9% EV
50.9% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 20.5 -105
-2.0% EV
49.1% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | USU | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +2.5 | -112 | -2.5% | -108 | -2.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -108 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +2.5 | -105 | -1.1% | -114 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +2.5 | -110 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.4% |
| Book | USU | EV | FRES | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +110 | -3.8% | -130 | -0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +106 | -4.7% | -128 | -0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +110 | -3.8% | -135 | -1.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +111 | -3.6% | -130 | -0.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +110 | -3.8% | -130 | -0.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 42.5 | -108 | -5.3% | -112 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 42.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.1% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State 56% to beat Utah State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Fresno State the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Utah State a 44% chance of beating Fresno State, against 56% for Fresno State. Utah State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Fresno State (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.8–4.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Utah State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.0–7.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fresno State | 6.8–4.2 | 1% | 1% |
| Utah State | 4.0–7.0 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Fresno State and Utah State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Fresno State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Utah State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2011: Fresno State 3, Utah State 4. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Utah State 28, Fresno State 17.
Fresno State are 64-22 as favourite and 22-49 as underdog, and 43-48 on the road (47% of 91 games, 2011–2026).
Utah State are 63-21 as favourite and 21-54 as underdog, and 50-28 at home (64% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 64-22 | 63-21 |
| As underdog | 22-49 | 21-54 |
| At home | 46-29 | 50-28 |
| On the road | 43-48 | 37-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →