Air Force
6-0
Army
5-0
Win Probability
An unbeaten Air Force team travels to face an unbeaten Army side in a matchup where the simulation favours the home team. Army's passing attack projects to move the ball through Cale Hellums, who is expected to exceed 130 yards, while Air Force's Howard Fisher IV is projected for just 70—a stark gap that shapes how each offense can sustain drives. Samari Howard is favored to reach 25 receiving yards, but Air Force's Owen Allen could eclipse 50 rushing yards if the Falcons can establish their ground game. This game turns on whether Air Force can generate offensive consistency without a functional passing game; AccuScore's model has gone 57-79 on similar home-team leans across 79 graded matchups. An upset requires the Falcons to win the line of scrimmage and keep Army's receiving corps contained.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H AFA ML
AFA +136
-2.8% EV
36.7% leads · push 7.9%
DraftKings ↗
1H ARMY ML
ARMY -140
+1.5% EV
55.4% leads · push 7.9%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
AFA +2.5 -110
-4.4% EV
47.8% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
ARMY -2.5 -108
+0.2% EV
52.2% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 22.5 -115
+5.1% EV
58.9% over
theScore Bet ↗
1H Total
U 22.5 -110
-10.8% EV
41.1% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | ARMY | EV | AFA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -3 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -3.5 | -102 | +3.9% | -120 | -8.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -3 | -115 | +3.0% | -102 | -7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -3 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -3.5 | +100 | +4.5% | -120 | -8.3% |
| Book | ARMY | EV | AFA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -166 | +0.8% | +140 | -6.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -160 | +1.5% | +134 | -7.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -160 | +1.5% | +135 | -7.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -170 | +0.3% | +141 | -5.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -155 | +2.2% | +135 | -7.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +7.6% | -115 | -11.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 44.5 | -118 | +7.0% | -104 | -12.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -115 | +7.7% | -105 | -12.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45 | -110 | +7.7% | -109 | -11.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +7.6% | -115 | -11.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.5%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Army 63% to beat Air Force (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Army the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Army a 63% chance of beating Air Force, against 37% for Air Force. Army are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Air Force (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.2–3.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Army (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.5–4.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Air Force and Army come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Air Force have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
Army have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Air Force 7, Army 6. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished Army 20, Air Force 17.
Air Force are 58-30 as favourite and 18-42 as underdog, and 33-46 on the road (42% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Army are 41-20 as favourite and 23-60 as underdog, and 41-29 at home (59% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | AFA | ARMY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 58-30 | 41-20 |
| As underdog | 18-42 | 23-60 |
| At home | 50-29 | 41-29 |
| On the road | 33-46 | 30-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →