NCAAF
Miami Hurricanes
8-0
Notre Dame
7-0
Win Probability
An undefeated Miami Hurricanes team travels to face undefeated Notre Dame in a matchup the simulation favours clearly to the home side. The Irish lean on a passing game led by CJ Carr's projected 200 yards, while the Hurricanes counter through Darian Mensah with similar yardage and Malachi Toney as their receiving threat at 65 projected yards. The game turns on Miami's ability to generate a consistent ground attack; the simulation projects Mark Fletcher Jr. for just 45 rushing yards, a constraint that could limit offensive balance. AccuScore's model has hit 57 percent on games shaped this way—a home favourite at this probability level—across 79 graded contests. For Miami to pull the upset, the Hurricanes would need to exceed their projected ground volume and avoid the kind of offensive fragmentation the numbers suggest.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MIA ML
MIA +154
+0.3% EV
36.5% leads · push 7.8%
DraftKings ↗
1H ND ML
ND -175
-2.4% EV
55.7% leads · push 7.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | ND | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -5.5 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5.5 | -108 | -4.5% | -110 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -5.5 | -108 | -4.5% | -112 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | -3.9% | -115 | -0.7% |
| Book | ND | EV | MIA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | -2.5% | +170 | -1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -200 | -2.1% | +164 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -210 | -2.9% | +170 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -213 | -3.1% | +177 | +0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -210 | -2.9% | +175 | -0.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +4.4% | -110 | -8.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +4.4% | -110 | -8.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +4.4% | -108 | -8.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 57.5 | -109 | +4.6% | -110 | -8.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 57.5 | +100 | +6.9% | -120 | -10.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.2%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame 64% to beat Miami Hurricanes (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Notre Dame the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Notre Dame a 64% chance of beating Miami Hurricanes, against 36% for Miami Hurricanes. Notre Dame are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Miami Hurricanes (8-0 so far) project to finish 11.2–0.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 97% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Notre Dame (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.4–1.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 92% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Hurricanes | 11.2–0.8 | 99% | 97% |
| Notre Dame | 10.4–1.6 | 0% | 92% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Miami Hurricanes and Notre Dame come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Miami Hurricanes have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Notre Dame have won 4 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2012: Miami Hurricanes 2, Notre Dame 2. The last meeting, on Aug 31, 2025, finished Notre Dame 24, Miami Hurricanes 27.
Miami Hurricanes are 79-33 as favourite and 19-30 as underdog, and 45-40 on the road (53% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
Notre Dame are 114-22 as favourite and 16-22 as underdog, and 87-19 at home (82% of 106 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MIA | ND |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 79-33 | 114-22 |
| As underdog | 19-30 | 16-22 |
| At home | 58-26 | 87-19 |
| On the road | 45-40 | 54-25 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →