NCAAF
Sam Houston
1-0
Jacksonville State
6-0
Win Probability
Jacksonville State hosts Sam Houston in a game where the simulation decisively favours the home side. Caden Creel is projected for 180 passing yards, while Sam Houston's DJ Bailey faces a much steeper task at just 60, a gap that captures the offensive disparity at play. Deondre Johnson is expected to add 35 receiving yards as Jacksonville State's passing game should function comfortably against the visitor's defence. On similar win-probability shapes across eight other past games, the favoured home side won all eight. For Sam Houston to pull the upset, its ground game—led by MJ Dowdy at 30 projected rushing yards—would need to sustain drives and keep Jacksonville State's offence off the field far longer than the model expects.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H SHSU ML
SHSU +440
-0.6% EV
17.2% leads · push 5.8%
FanDuel ↗
1H JXST ML
JXST -525
-1.3% EV
76.9% leads · push 5.8%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
SHSU +9.5 +100
-1.2% EV
48.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
JXST -9.5 -115
-2.1% EV
51.2% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 +102
-3.3% EV
46.2% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -110
+1.4% EV
53.8% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | JXST | EV | SHSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | -2.2% | -105 | -2.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -17.5 | -104 | -3.0% | -115 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -17 | -108 | -2.2% | -110 | -1.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17 | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | -2.2% | -105 | -2.3% |
| Book | JXST | EV | SHSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -850 | -1.1% | +575 | -7.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -950 | -1.6% | +640 | -3.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -800 | -0.8% | +600 | -6.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -850 | -1.1% | +550 | -9.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1000 | -1.9% | +600 | -6.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 48.5 | -102 | -4.8% | -118 | +0.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 48.5 | -105 | -5.5% | -115 | +0.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 48.5 | -102 | -4.8% | -118 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 48 | -110 | -5.1% | -110 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 48.5 | +100 | -4.4% | -120 | -0.2% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville State 88% to beat Sam Houston (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Jacksonville State the more likely winner at 88%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Jacksonville State a 88% chance of beating Sam Houston, against 13% for Sam Houston. Jacksonville State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Sam Houston (1-7 so far) project to finish 2.5–9.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Jacksonville State (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.5–3.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Houston | 2.5–9.5 | 0% | 0% |
| Jacksonville State | 8.5–3.5 | 15% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Sam Houston and Jacksonville State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Sam Houston have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Jacksonville State have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).