Boise State
7-0
Colorado State
3-0
Win Probability
Boise State travels to Colorado State in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the visitors. Dylan Riley projects for 105 rushing yards, while Colorado State counters with Durell Robinson expected to gain 55 on the ground—a gap that reflects the model's lean. The game turns on Boise State's passing attack; Akeem Wright and Rasean Jones are each projected for 50 receiving yards as the visitors look to establish rhythm through the air. On games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has won 8 of 8 in a separate sample. For Colorado State to pull the upset at home, it would need to force Boise State into uncharacteristic passing inefficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H BOIS ML
BOIS -525
-1.3% EV
77.2% leads · push 5.6%
BetMGM ↗
1H CSU ML
CSU +490
+3.7% EV
17.2% leads · push 5.6%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
BOIS -10.5 -108
-1.6% EV
50.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
CSU +10.5 -108
-2.2% EV
49.7% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 35.5 +100
+1.7% EV
51.7% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 35.5 -115
-4.9% EV
48.3% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | CSU | EV | BOIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +17.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +17.5 | -114 | -6.0% | -106 | +1.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +17 | -108 | -6.0% | -110 | +2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +17.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +17.5 | -110 | -5.2% | -110 | +0.7% |
| Book | CSU | EV | BOIS | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +625 | -9.4% | -950 | -0.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +640 | -8.6% | -950 | -0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +650 | -8.0% | -900 | -0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | +650 | -8.0% | -1000 | -1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +550 | -13.6% | -900 | -0.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 68.5 | -115 | +3.8% | -105 | -8.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 68.5 | -115 | +3.8% | -105 | -8.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 68.5 | -110 | +4.9% | -108 | -9.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 68.5 | -112 | +4.4% | -108 | -9.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 68.5 | -115 | +3.8% | -105 | -8.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.1%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State 89% to beat Colorado State (11%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Boise State the more likely winner at 89%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Colorado State a 11% chance of beating Boise State, against 89% for Boise State. Colorado State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Boise State (7-1 so far) project to finish 9.5–1.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 39% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Colorado State (3-5 so far) project to finish 3.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boise State | 9.5–1.5 | 81% | 39% |
| Colorado State | 3.5–7.5 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Boise State and Colorado State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Boise State have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Colorado State have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Boise State 13, Colorado State 0. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished Colorado State 21, Boise State 49.
Boise State are 119-26 as favourite and 8-18 as underdog, and 62-27 on the road (70% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Colorado State are 36-22 as favourite and 21-71 as underdog, and 36-45 at home (44% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | BOIS | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 119-26 | 36-22 |
| As underdog | 8-18 | 21-71 |
| At home | 73-18 | 36-45 |
| On the road | 62-27 | 27-51 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →