Temple
2-0
Navy
2-0
Win Probability
Temple travels to Navy in a matchup between undefeated teams where the simulation favors the Midshipmen decisively. Ajani Sheppard projects to 160 passing yards for the Commodores, while Jackson Gutierrez is expected to throw for 130 in the home environment. The game hinges on Temple's ability to run the ball—Keveun Mason is projected for just 55 rushing yards against Navy's defense—a constraint that could force the visiting offense into difficult third-down situations. On similar win-probability setups favoring the home team, AccuScore has returned 62% win rate across 66 graded games. Temple would need to establish greater offensive balance and limit Gutierrez's efficiency to pull off the upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TEM ML
TEM +198
+1.3% EV
31.9% leads · push 7.5%
FanDuel ↗
1H NAVY ML
NAVY -220
-2.2% EV
60.6% leads · push 7.5%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TEM +4.5 -110
-0.1% EV
52.3% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
NAVY -4.5 -102
-2.8% EV
47.7% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -110
-5.4% EV
46.7% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -108
+1.3% EV
53.3% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | NAVY | EV | TEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -102 | +0.7% | -118 | -5.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | +100 | +1.2% | -122 | -5.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7.5 | -105 | +0.0% | -115 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -104 | +0.3% | -115 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -7.5 | +100 | +1.2% | -120 | -5.3% |
| Book | NAVY | EV | TEM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -290 | -2.3% | +235 | -1.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -285 | -2.1% | +230 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -285 | -2.1% | +230 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -290 | -2.3% | +235 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -320 | -3.5% | +260 | +2.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -6.1% | -108 | +1.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -6.5% | -106 | +2.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -108 | +1.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -6.5% | -105 | +2.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -110 | -5.7% | -110 | +1.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 29.1%
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Temple (2-6 so far) project to finish 3.8–8.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Navy (2-6 so far) project to finish 4.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Navy 71% to beat Temple (29%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Navy the more likely winner at 71%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Navy a 71% chance of beating Temple, against 29% for Temple. Navy are at home and favoured on these numbers.
How Temple and Navy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Temple have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Navy have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2014: Temple 3, Navy 6. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2025, finished Navy 32, Temple 31.
Temple are 42-18 as favourite and 26-73 as underdog, and 33-53 on the road (38% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
Navy are 63-20 as favourite and 27-51 as underdog, and 54-31 at home (64% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TEM | NAVY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 42-18 | 63-20 |
| As underdog | 26-73 | 27-51 |
| At home | 37-43 | 54-31 |
| On the road | 33-53 | 41-43 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →