North Carolina
4-0
UConn
4-0
Win Probability
North Carolina travels to Connecticut as the clear favourite in this matchup between undefeated teams. Billy Edwards Jr. projects for 200 passing yards against a UConn defence that may struggle to contain the Tar Heels' attack, while Kalieb Osborne is expected to manage only 170 through the air for the Huskies. The game hinges on whether North Carolina can sustain that offensive advantage; UConn's Cyncir Bowers averaging 55 rushing yards suggests the hosts will need to establish the ground game to stay competitive. AccuScore's model has favoured the away side in similarly shaped games 7 times across 8 recent matchups. For UConn to pull the upset, the simulation would need to underestimate their ability to control time of possession and limit Edwards' efficiency.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UNC ML
UNC -210
-3.8% EV
57.7% leads · push 7.1%
BetMGM ↗
1H CONN ML
CONN +195
+5.4% EV
35.2% leads · push 7.1%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UNC -4.5 -102
-5.0% EV
45.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
CONN +4.5 -113
+1.4% EV
54.5% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -102
-0.3% EV
50.2% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -112
-2.8% EV
49.8% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | CONN | EV | UNC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +7 | -115 | -0.5% | -105 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +6.5 | +102 | +1.7% | -124 | -5.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +7 | -115 | -0.5% | -105 | -3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +7 | -112 | +0.1% | -108 | -4.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +6.5 | -105 | -0.0% | -115 | -4.4% |
| Book | CONN | EV | UNC | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +220 | +4.1% | -270 | -4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +215 | +3.2% | -265 | -4.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +220 | +4.1% | -275 | -4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +220 | +4.1% | -275 | -4.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +230 | +5.8% | -280 | -5.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -1.2% | -105 | -3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -1.0% | -106 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -0.6% | -105 | -3.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -108 | +0.2% | -112 | -4.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -1.2% | -105 | -3.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 33.8%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes North Carolina 66% to beat UConn (34%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Carolina the more likely winner at 66%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UConn a 34% chance of beating North Carolina, against 66% for North Carolina. UConn are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
North Carolina (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UConn (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| North Carolina | 6.1–5.9 | 0% | <1% |
| UConn | 6.2–5.8 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How North Carolina and UConn come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
North Carolina have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
UConn have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: North Carolina 0, UConn 1. The last meeting, on Dec 28, 2024, finished UConn 27, North Carolina 14.
North Carolina are 56-29 as favourite and 17-52 as underdog, and 36-45 on the road (44% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
UConn are 22-12 as favourite and 20-85 as underdog, and 30-42 at home (42% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNC | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 56-29 | 22-12 |
| As underdog | 17-52 | 20-85 |
| At home | 42-41 | 30-42 |
| On the road | 36-45 | 17-60 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →