TCU
4-0
Arizona
6-0
Win Probability
TCU travels to face Arizona in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Noah Fifita is projected for 190 passing yards, while Jaden Craig lands at 180—a narrow margin that masks Arizona's overall offensive advantage, with Isaiah Mizell expected to add 40 receiving yards against TCU's Ed Small at 35. The game turns on whether TCU's passing attack can keep pace; the visitors will need significant production from their skill players to stay close. On similar matchups, AccuScore has won 7 of 8 past games. For the Horned Frogs to pull the upset, Craig would need to exceed his projection substantially while Arizona's passing game stalls below expectation.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TCU ML
TCU +210
-2.2% EV
28.3% leads · push 7.9%
theScore Bet ↗
1H ARIZ ML
ARIZ -230
-0.3% EV
63.8% leads · push 7.9%
Hard Rock Bet ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TCU +5.5 -108
-1.4% EV
50.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
ARIZ -5.5 -108
-2.3% EV
49.6% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 22.5 -110
-3.5% EV
48.8% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 22.5 -104
+0.3% EV
51.2% under
betPARX ↗
| Book | Line | ARIZ | EV | TCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -9.5 | -105 | -2.7% | -115 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -106 | -2.9% | -114 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9 | -108 | -1.5% | -110 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -9 | -108 | -1.5% | -112 | -2.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -9.5 | -105 | -2.7% | -115 | -1.8% |
| Book | ARIZ | EV | TCU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -345 | -2.5% | +275 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -320 | -1.6% | +255 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -350 | -2.6% | +275 | -0.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -345 | -2.5% | +275 | -0.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -360 | -2.9% | +280 | -0.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 43.5 | -115 | -4.1% | -105 | -0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 43.5 | -118 | -4.7% | -104 | -0.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 43.5 | -118 | -4.7% | -102 | +0.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 44 | -110 | -4.3% | -109 | +0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 44.5 | -105 | -4.6% | -115 | -0.0% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona 74% to beat TCU (26%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arizona the more likely winner at 74%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arizona a 74% chance of beating TCU, against 26% for TCU. Arizona are at home and favoured on these numbers.
TCU (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.4–6.6 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arizona (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.3–3.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 13% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How TCU and Arizona come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
TCU have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Arizona have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met once since 2024: TCU 1, Arizona 0. The last meeting, on Nov 23, 2024, finished Arizona 28, TCU 49.
TCU are 73-32 as favourite and 20-34 as underdog, and 47-33 on the road (59% of 80 games, 2011–2026).
Arizona are 46-19 as favourite and 22-64 as underdog, and 44-39 at home (53% of 83 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TCU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 73-32 | 46-19 |
| As underdog | 20-34 | 22-64 |
| At home | 54-34 | 44-39 |
| On the road | 47-33 | 25-52 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →