New Mexico
7-0
Nevada
3-0
Win Probability
New Mexico travels to face Nevada as a significant favourite in this matchup. The simulation leans decisively toward the Lobos, who project to dominate through the air and ground game alike—Toa Fa'avae is expected to exceed 140 passing yards while Kiefer Sibley should clear 60 rushing yards. Nevada's offensive output hinges on whether AJ Bianco can operate efficiently enough to keep pace, though his projection of just 110 passing yards suggests the Wolf Pack will struggle to match New Mexico's volume. AccuScore has graded 54 similar games—where the away team carried a 70-80% win probability—and won 65% of them, posting a -5.4% return. For Nevada to pull the upset at home, the defence would need to force multiple New Mexico mistakes while generating production well above these projection levels.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H UNM ML
UNM -280
-1.8% EV
65.2% leads · push 7.9%
theScore Bet ↗
1H NEV ML
NEV +250
+1.0% EV
26.9% leads · push 7.9%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
UNM -5.5 -112
-2.4% EV
50.3% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
NEV +5.5 -102
-0.8% EV
49.7% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 18.5 -110
+4.6% EV
57.2% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 18.5 -105
-8.2% EV
42.8% under
Caesars ↗
| Book | Line | NEV | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +9.5 | -108 | -3.8% | -112 | -0.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +9.5 | -105 | -3.2% | -115 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +9.5 | -108 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | +9.5 | -104 | -3.0% | -115 | -1.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +10.5 | -120 | -2.7% | +100 | -1.5% |
| Book | NEV | EV | UNM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +295 | -1.0% | -375 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +320 | +2.1% | -410 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +310 | +0.8% | -375 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +305 | +0.2% | -390 | -2.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +320 | +2.1% | -425 | -3.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 37.5 | -102 | +5.1% | -118 | -9.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 37.5 | -105 | +4.4% | -115 | -8.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 37.5 | -102 | +5.1% | -118 | -9.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 37 | -114 | +3.5% | -106 | -8.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 36.5 | -115 | +4.4% | -105 | -9.2% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico 75% to beat Nevada (25%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes New Mexico the more likely winner at 75%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Nevada a 25% chance of beating New Mexico, against 75% for New Mexico. Nevada are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
New Mexico (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.2–1.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 28% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Nevada (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.8–7.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico | 10.2–1.8 | 74% | 28% |
| Nevada | 4.8–7.2 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How New Mexico and Nevada come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
New Mexico have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Nevada have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2011: New Mexico 2, Nevada 5. The last meeting, on Oct 17, 2025, finished Nevada 22, New Mexico 24.
New Mexico are 27-13 as favourite and 18-90 as underdog, and 24-63 on the road (28% of 87 games, 2011–2026).
Nevada are 45-18 as favourite and 23-68 as underdog, and 38-34 at home (53% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | UNM | NEV |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 27-13 | 45-18 |
| As underdog | 18-90 | 23-68 |
| At home | 26-44 | 38-34 |
| On the road | 24-63 | 31-58 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →