Nebraska
5-0
Illinois
5-0
Win Probability
Nebraska travels to face Illinois in a matchup between two undefeated teams, with the simulation favoring the Cornhuskers. Anthony Colandrea projects to 190 passing yards while Katin Houser reaches 160, a gap that reflects where the model sees Nebraska's offensive advantage. The game hinges on Nebraska's ground game: Mekhi Nelson is projected for 50 rushing yards, modest production that Illinois will need to contain if the home side is to stay within the outcome the simulation expects. AccuScore's model has won just 51% of games shaped like this one across 61 similar matchups, a reminder that slight leans can flatten quickly. For Illinois to pull the upset, it would need Houser and receivers like Collin Dixon to exceed their projections enough to compensate for Nebraska's passing advantage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H NEB ML
NEB -175
-4.0% EV
53.9% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
1H ILL ML
ILL +160
+4.0% EV
38.7% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | ILL | EV | NEB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +4.5 | -112 | -1.1% | -108 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -0.7% | -110 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +4.5 | -112 | -1.1% | -105 | -2.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | +4.5 | -109 | -0.4% | -110 | -3.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +4.5 | -105 | +0.5% | -115 | -4.8% |
| Book | ILL | EV | NEB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +164 | +1.7% | -198 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +152 | -0.6% | -182 | -2.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +160 | +1.0% | -190 | -3.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | +166 | +2.1% | -197 | -4.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +175 | +3.9% | -210 | -5.1% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 50.5 | -105 | -1.9% | -115 | -2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -3.0% | -110 | -1.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 50.5 | -108 | -2.6% | -110 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 49.5 | -116 | -2.4% | -103 | -1.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 49.5 | -115 | -2.2% | -105 | -2.3% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 39.2%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Nebraska 61% to beat Illinois (39%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Nebraska the more likely winner at 61%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Illinois a 39% chance of beating Nebraska, against 61% for Nebraska. Illinois are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Nebraska (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.1–4.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 4% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Illinois (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Nebraska and Illinois come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Nebraska have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
Illinois have won 4 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2013: Nebraska 6, Illinois 5. The last meeting, on Sep 19, 2024, finished Illinois 31, Nebraska 24.
Nebraska are 66-27 as favourite and 11-53 as underdog, and 29-47 on the road (38% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
Illinois are 35-19 as favourite and 27-72 as underdog, and 44-48 at home (48% of 92 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NEB | ILL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 66-27 | 35-19 |
| As underdog | 11-53 | 27-72 |
| At home | 52-38 | 44-48 |
| On the road | 29-47 | 25-45 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →