South Florida
6-0
East Carolina
4-0
Win Probability
This matchup between South Florida and East Carolina is a coin flip, with the simulation barely favouring the Pirates as hosts. The game hinges on passing volume: Mitch Griffis is projected for 120 passing yards while Luke Kromenhoek reaches just 90, a gap that could determine field position and scoring opportunity. AccuScore's model has won only 37 percent of games shaped like this one across 63 historical instances, though in eight similar matchups from other teams the model's side won six. For South Florida to upset the projection, Kromenhoek would need to exceed his modest yardage expectation while D.J. Crowther punches through the ground game beyond his 60-yard projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H USF ML
USF +110
+0.6% EV
43.8% leads · push 9.4%
betPARX ↗
1H ECU ML
ECU -115
-1.5% EV
46.9% leads · push 9.4%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
USF +0.5 -110
+0.7% EV
53.1% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
ECU -0.5 +100
-3.1% EV
46.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 19.5 -115
+0.9% EV
54.4% over
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
U 19.5 +100
-4.4% EV
45.6% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | ECU | EV | USF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -1.5 | -115 | -4.0% | -105 | -0.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | -114 | -3.8% | -102 | +0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2 | -110 | -4.2% | -108 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -1.5 | -112 | -3.4% | -108 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -2.5 | -110 | -5.5% | -110 | +0.9% |
| Book | ECU | EV | USF | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -130 | -3.4% | +110 | -0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -128 | -3.1% | +106 | -1.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -130 | -3.4% | +105 | -1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -125 | -2.6% | +104 | -1.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -130 | -3.4% | +110 | -0.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +0.3% | -112 | -4.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +0.3% | -112 | -4.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 39.5 | -108 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 39.5 | -114 | -1.0% | -105 | -3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 38.5 | -115 | +1.3% | -105 | -5.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 50.8%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina 53% to beat South Florida (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes East Carolina the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives East Carolina a 53% chance of beating South Florida, against 47% for South Florida. East Carolina are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Florida (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.0–4.0 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
East Carolina (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.2–5.8 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Florida | 8.0–4.0 | <1% | <1% |
| East Carolina | 6.2–5.8 | <1% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Florida and East Carolina come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Florida have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
East Carolina have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 9 times since 2014: South Florida 5, East Carolina 4. The last meeting, on Oct 1, 2022, finished East Carolina 48, South Florida 28.
South Florida are 47-19 as favourite and 13-73 as underdog, and 32-49 on the road (40% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
East Carolina are 48-18 as favourite and 20-67 as underdog, and 42-34 at home (55% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USF | ECU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 47-19 | 48-18 |
| As underdog | 13-73 | 20-67 |
| At home | 33-46 | 42-34 |
| On the road | 32-49 | 32-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →