Louisiana Tech
6-0
Troy
4-0
Win Probability
Louisiana Tech travels to Troy as the side favored by the simulation. Blake Baker is projected for 160 passing yards, while Troy's Tucker Kilcrease sits at just 100—a gap that mirrors the visitors' advantage in total offensive volume. The game turns on whether Louisiana Tech can convert that efficiency into points before Troy's ground game, led by Jordan Lovett at 40 rushing yards, grinds out enough possessions to stay close. AccuScore's model has gone 51% over 61 similar games where the away side carried a clear lean, suggesting chalk on matchups shaped this way carries real historical friction. Troy would need to limit Baker's effectiveness and dominate time of possession to upset the projection.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LT ML
LT -160
-0.9% EV
55.8% leads · push 7.5%
BetMGM ↗
1H TROY ML
TROY +144
-1.5% EV
36.6% leads · push 7.5%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
LT -2.5 -120
-1.9% EV
52.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
TROY +2.5 +102
-2.0% EV
47.5% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -110
-1.8% EV
50.5% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 -105
-1.7% EV
49.5% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | TROY | EV | LT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +5 | -110 | -2.6% | -108 | -1.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +4.5 | -105 | -3.2% | -114 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +4.5 | -110 | -4.3% | -110 | -0.3% |
| Book | TROY | EV | LT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +164 | -2.1% | -198 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +158 | -3.2% | -188 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +165 | -1.9% | -200 | -2.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +165 | -1.9% | -195 | -1.8% |
| Fanatics ↗ | +170 | -1.0% | -205 | -2.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -102 | -2.9% | -118 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -0.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 47.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -0.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | 47 | -110 | -3.4% | -110 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 47.5 | -105 | -3.6% | -115 | -0.9% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech 64% to beat Troy (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana Tech the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Troy a 36% chance of beating Louisiana Tech, against 64% for Louisiana Tech. Troy are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Louisiana Tech (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.8–3.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Troy (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.6–6.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Louisiana Tech | 8.8–3.2 | 88% | 2% |
| Troy | 5.6–6.4 | 2% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Louisiana Tech and Troy come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Louisiana Tech have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
Troy have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Troy are 53-25 as favourite and 19-57 as underdog, and 41-31 at home (57% of 72 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LT | TROY |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | — | 53-25 |
| As underdog | — | 19-57 |
| At home | — | 41-31 |
| On the road | — | 35-54 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →