NCAAF
Western Kentucky
3-0
Middle Tennessee
4-0
Win Probability
Western Kentucky travels to face Middle Tennessee in a coin-flip matchup where the simulation barely favours the Hilltoppers. Roman Gagliano projects for 200 passing yards against a Western Kentucky defence that will task Brock Glenn with just 170 through the air, a gap that mirrors the offensive disparity the model sees. The game hinges on ground game efficiency: Antonio Martin is projected for 50 rushing yards against Ajay Allen's similar projection, meaning whichever team's run game generates yards beyond that baseline likely wins. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way—slight favourites on the road—stands at 35% across 83 graded instances, though in eight comparable matchups the favoured side won six. For Middle Tennessee to pull the upset at home, it will need the passing advantage to materialize and hold firm on early downs.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H WKU ML
WKU -105
-1.0% EV
46.3% leads · push 7.7%
BetMGM ↗
1H MTSU ML
MTSU -106
-1.4% EV
46.1% leads · push 7.7%
Caesars ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
| Book | Line | MTSU | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -118 | -1.2% | -102 | -3.3% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -120 | -1.6% | -102 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +1 | -110 | -1.0% | -108 | -3.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1 | -113 | -1.6% | -107 | -2.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1.5 | -105 | -4.2% | -105 | +1.8% |
| Book | MTSU | EV | WKU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -112 | -3.0% | -108 | -1.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -110 | -2.6% | -110 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -108 | -2.1% | -110 | -2.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -112 | -3.0% | -106 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -105 | -1.5% | -115 | -3.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 52.5 | -112 | -1.2% | -108 | -3.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -1.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -0.8% | -108 | -3.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 53 | -108 | -1.7% | -112 | -2.7% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -3.6% | -110 | -1.0% |
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AccuScore's simulation makes Western Kentucky 50% to beat Middle Tennessee (50%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Western Kentucky the more likely winner at 50%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Middle Tennessee a 50% chance of beating Western Kentucky, against 50% for Western Kentucky. Middle Tennessee are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Western Kentucky (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Middle Tennessee (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.4–6.6 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Kentucky | 4.5–7.5 | <1% | 0% |
| Middle Tennessee | 5.4–6.6 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Western Kentucky and Middle Tennessee come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Western Kentucky have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-W, most recent first).
Middle Tennessee have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
Western Kentucky are 68-28 as favourite and 26-40 as underdog, and 48-46 on the road (51% of 94 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | WKU | MTSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 68-28 | — |
| As underdog | 26-40 | — |
| At home | 49-26 | — |
| On the road | 48-46 | — |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →