NCAAF
Missouri State
3-0
Florida International
3-0
Win Probability
Florida International hosts Missouri State in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side clearly. The game hinges on passing efficiency: JJ Kohl projects for 190 yards while Henry Belin IV is expected to manage just 160, a gap that compounds across possessions. Florida International's receiving corps spreads targets across Maguire Anderson (45 yards), Kyle McNeal (25 yards) and Eric Nelson Jr. (20 yards), giving the hosts multiple angles to attack, while Missouri State leans more heavily on Isaiah Myers at 50 receiving yards. On similar matchups—home favorites in the 60-to-70-percent win probability range—AccuScore's model won 57 percent of the time across 79 graded games. For Missouri State to pull the upset, its passing game would need to function well above projection while Florida International's receivers fail to generate their distributed yardage.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MOST ML
MOST +150
+0.2% EV
37.1% leads · push 7.6%
DraftKings ↗
1H FIU ML
FIU -165
-1.8% EV
55.3% leads · push 7.6%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MOST +3.5 -115
-0.3% EV
53.2% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
FIU -3.5 +100
-3.2% EV
46.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 -105
-1.6% EV
49.6% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -110
-1.9% EV
50.4% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | FIU | EV | MOST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -4.5 | -112 | -1.5% | -108 | -3.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -115 | -2.1% | -104 | -2.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5 | -110 | -2.6% | -108 | -1.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -4.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -109 | -3.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | -5.2% | -105 | +0.8% |
| Book | FIU | EV | MOST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | -2.8% | +170 | -0.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -200 | -2.4% | +164 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -210 | -3.2% | +170 | -0.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -200 | -2.4% | +167 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -210 | -3.2% | +175 | +0.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -115 | -2.4% | -105 | -2.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -114 | -2.2% | -106 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 49.5 | -110 | -1.4% | -108 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | 49.5 | -113 | -2.0% | -106 | -2.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -3.8% | -110 | -0.8% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.6%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Florida International 63% to beat Missouri State (37%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Florida International the more likely winner at 63%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Florida International a 63% chance of beating Missouri State, against 37% for Missouri State. Florida International are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Missouri State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.5–7.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Florida International (3-5 so far) project to finish 5.3–6.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Missouri State | 4.5–7.5 | 1% | 0% |
| Florida International | 5.3–6.7 | 0% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Missouri State and Florida International come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Missouri State have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
Florida International have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).