Liberty
7-0
New Mexico State
3-0
Win Probability
Liberty travels to New Mexico State as a decisive favourite in this matchup between undefeated teams. The simulation leans heavily toward the Flames, pivoting on their passing game: Deshawn Purdie is projected for 160 yards through the air, while Adam Damante is expected to manage only 150. Liberty's ground game adds another layer, with Kam Davis projected for 65 rushing yards against New Mexico State's James Jones at 55. AccuScore's model has backed the away side decisively in 40 prior games shaped like this one, winning 63% of those contests. For the Aggies to pull the upset, they would need to force Liberty into uncharacteristic inefficiency while sustaining their own offensive output in a tight game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H LIB ML
LIB -550
-1.9% EV
76.5% leads · push 5.8%
BetMGM ↗
1H NMSU ML
NMSU +500
+6.1% EV
17.8% leads · push 5.8%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
LIB -10.5 +100
-5.0% EV
45.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
NMSU +10.5 -120
+0.5% EV
55.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -130
-2.4% EV
53.8% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +110
-1.5% EV
46.2% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | NMSU | EV | LIB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +16.5 | -102 | -2.6% | -118 | -1.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +17.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +17 | -105 | -1.5% | -112 | -2.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | +17 | -110 | -2.6% | -109 | -1.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +17.5 | -120 | -2.9% | +100 | -1.4% |
| Book | NMSU | EV | LIB | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +575 | -7.5% | -850 | -1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +640 | -3.4% | -950 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +600 | -5.9% | -800 | -0.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | +575 | -7.5% | -850 | -1.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +500 | -12.2% | -800 | -0.8% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -1.3% | -112 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 46.5 | -114 | -2.5% | -106 | -2.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 46.5 | -108 | -1.3% | -110 | -2.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | 46.5 | -109 | -1.5% | -112 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | -1.7% | -110 | -2.8% |
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty 87% to beat New Mexico State (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Liberty the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives New Mexico State a 13% chance of beating Liberty, against 87% for Liberty. New Mexico State are at home but the underdog on these numbers.
Liberty (7-1 so far) project to finish 10.2–1.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 2% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
New Mexico State (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.7–7.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | 10.2–1.8 | 83% | 2% |
| New Mexico State | 4.7–7.3 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Liberty and New Mexico State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Liberty have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
New Mexico State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 7 times since 2018: Liberty 6, New Mexico State 1. The last meeting, on Oct 14, 2025, finished New Mexico State 27, Liberty 30.
Liberty are 29-12 as favourite and 9-12 as underdog, and 20-18 on the road (53% of 38 games, 2018–2026).
New Mexico State are 16-8 as favourite and 14-103 as underdog, and 17-46 at home (27% of 63 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | LIB | NMSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 29-12 | 16-8 |
| As underdog | 9-12 | 14-103 |
| At home | 23-8 | 17-46 |
| On the road | 20-18 | 16-71 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →