South Alabama
4-0
Louisiana
5-0
Win Probability
Louisiana hosts South Alabama in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Lunch Winfield projects for 190 passing yards against a South Alabama defense that will lean heavily on Jared Hollins to move the ball through the air with just 180 yards expected. The game turns on whether South Alabama can sustain drives; Keenan Phillips is projected for 50 rushing yards, and if that yardage comes efficiently, the visitors stay within range. AccuScore's model has won 62 percent of its calls on games shaped like this one across 66 graded contests. For South Alabama to pull the upset, they would need Phillips and Hollins to exceed these projections significantly while containing Steven Blanco, who is expected to rush for 50 yards.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H USA ML
USA +220
+2.6% EV
30.6% leads · push 7.2%
DraftKings ↗
1H UL ML
UL -250
-2.9% EV
62.2% leads · push 7.2%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
USA +5.5 -105
-0.1% EV
51.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
UL -5.5 -112
-3.8% EV
48.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 28.5 -105
+1.0% EV
52.2% over
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
U 28.5 -110
-4.4% EV
47.8% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | UL | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -8.5 | -105 | +0.0% | -112 | -3.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -1.1% | -110 | -3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -9.5 | -105 | -3.0% | -115 | -1.5% |
| Book | UL | EV | USA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -325 | -2.3% | +260 | -1.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -335 | -2.7% | +265 | -0.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -325 | -2.3% | +270 | +0.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -345 | -3.0% | +275 | +0.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -360 | -3.4% | +280 | +1.5% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -108 | -6.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 57.5 | -115 | +0.9% | -104 | -5.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 27.1%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana 73% to beat South Alabama (27%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Louisiana the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Louisiana a 73% chance of beating South Alabama, against 27% for South Alabama. Louisiana are at home and favoured on these numbers.
South Alabama (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.3–5.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Louisiana (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Alabama | 6.3–5.7 | 2% | 0% |
| Louisiana | 7.6–4.4 | 5% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How South Alabama and Louisiana come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
South Alabama have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Louisiana have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2012: South Alabama 4, Louisiana 9. The last meeting, on Nov 1, 2025, finished Louisiana 31, South Alabama 22.
South Alabama are 31-22 as favourite and 14-74 as underdog, and 21-61 on the road (26% of 82 games, 2012–2026).
Louisiana are 62-20 as favourite and 32-44 as underdog, and 52-24 at home (68% of 76 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | USA | UL |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 31-22 | 62-20 |
| As underdog | 14-74 | 32-44 |
| At home | 29-38 | 52-24 |
| On the road | 21-61 | 48-44 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →