NCAAF
Marshall
5-0
Georgia Southern
4-0
Win Probability
Unbeaten Marshall travels to face unbeaten Georgia Southern, with the simulation favoring the home side decisively. Georgia Southern quarterback Max Johnson is projected for 190 passing yards, substantially more than Marshall's Carlos Del Rio Wilson at 130, and that gap in offensive efficiency drives the model's lean toward the Eagles. Marshall's path back into the game runs through explosive plays on the perimeter—Owen Sweeney and the receivers have to create separation and convert opportunities downfield—because the visiting offense will struggle to sustain drives otherwise. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has won 7 of 8 times. For Marshall to pull the upset, Del Rio Wilson would need to outperform his projection and Marshall's defense would have to force Georgia Southern into mistakes it hasn't made all season.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MRSH ML
MRSH +240
-1.2% EV
26.6% leads · push 7.1%
betPARX ↗
1H GASO ML
GASO -275
-1.3% EV
66.3% leads · push 7.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MRSH +6.5 -105
-1.9% EV
49.3% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
GASO -6.5 -109
-1.4% EV
50.7% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -109
-4.6% EV
47.3% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -108
+0.7% EV
52.7% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | GASO | EV | MRSH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10.5 | -108 | -0.1% | -112 | -4.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -105 | +0.6% | -115 | -5.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10 | -110 | +1.0% | -108 | -5.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10.5 | -106 | +0.4% | -114 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -10.5 | -110 | -0.5% | -110 | -4.0% |
| Book | GASO | EV | MRSH | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -395 | -1.4% | +310 | -3.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -385 | -1.2% | +310 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -400 | -1.6% | +320 | -2.7% |
| Caesars ↗ | -390 | -1.3% | +305 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -400 | -1.6% | +300 | -5.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -5.8% | -105 | +1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 54.5 | -114 | -5.6% | -106 | +1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -5.3% | -105 | +1.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 54.5 | -112 | -5.3% | -112 | -0.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 54.5 | -115 | -5.8% | -105 | +1.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.8%
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AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern 78% to beat Marshall (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Georgia Southern the more likely winner at 78%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Georgia Southern a 78% chance of beating Marshall, against 23% for Marshall. Georgia Southern are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Marshall (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Georgia Southern (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.5–5.5 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marshall | 6.8–5.2 | 1% | 0% |
| Georgia Southern | 6.5–5.5 | 28% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Marshall and Georgia Southern come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Marshall have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
Georgia Southern have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2022: Marshall 1, Georgia Southern 2. The last meeting, on Nov 29, 2025, finished Georgia Southern 24, Marshall 19.
Marshall are 72-29 as favourite and 17-36 as underdog, and 45-44 on the road (51% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
Georgia Southern are 38-9 as favourite and 19-48 as underdog, and 31-21 at home (60% of 52 games, 2014–2026).
| Record | MRSH | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 72-29 | 38-9 |
| As underdog | 17-36 | 19-48 |
| At home | 53-24 | 31-21 |
| On the road | 45-44 | 32-41 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →