UL Monroe
1-0
Arkansas State
4-0
Win Probability
Arkansas State hosts UL Monroe in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the Red Wolves. Trey Owens projects for 200 passing yards, while Aidan Armenta is expected to manage just 160, a gap that reflects the gulf in offensive efficiency the model sees. Solomon Baggett should contribute 60 rushing yards to a ground game that could wear down the Warhawks' defense over four quarters. AccuScore's historical record on games shaped like this one—where the home team is favored decisively—stands at 64 percent over 42 graded contests. For UL Monroe to pull the upset, their passing attack would need to exceed its projection significantly while holding Arkansas State's receiving weapons, particularly Jaylen Bonelli, well below his forecasted 45 yards.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ULM ML
ULM +400
+4.3% EV
20.5% leads · push 6.0%
DraftKings ↗
1H ARST ML
ARST -450
-2.1% EV
73.5% leads · push 6.0%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
ULM +9.5 -108
+0.5% EV
52.4% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
ARST -9.5 -108
-4.2% EV
47.5% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -102
-2.0% EV
48.5% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -110
-0.8% EV
51.5% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | ARST | EV | ULM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -14.5 | -115 | -2.0% | -104 | -2.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -108 | -3.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -14.5 | -110 | -1.0% | -110 | -3.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -14.5 | -105 | +0.1% | -115 | -4.5% |
| Book | ARST | EV | ULM | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -700 | -2.1% | +500 | -1.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -690 | -2.0% | +500 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -650 | -1.7% | +500 | -1.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -750 | -2.5% | +500 | -1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -800 | -2.9% | +500 | -1.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -3.1% | -112 | -1.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 53.5 | -108 | -3.1% | -110 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | 53 | -110 | -2.3% | -110 | -2.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 53.5 | -110 | -3.5% | -110 | -1.1% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.3%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State 84% to beat UL Monroe (16%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Arkansas State the more likely winner at 84%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Arkansas State a 84% chance of beating UL Monroe, against 16% for UL Monroe. Arkansas State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
UL Monroe (1-7 so far) project to finish 1.8–10.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Arkansas State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.9–6.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| UL Monroe | 1.8–10.2 | 0% | 0% |
| Arkansas State | 5.9–6.1 | 3% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How UL Monroe and Arkansas State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
UL Monroe have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Arkansas State have won 3 of their last 5 (W-W-L-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: UL Monroe 1, Arkansas State 12. The last meeting, on Sep 27, 2025, finished Arkansas State 16, UL Monroe 28.
UL Monroe are 23-16 as favourite and 26-85 as underdog, and 24-72 on the road (25% of 96 games, 2011–2026).
Arkansas State are 60-23 as favourite and 19-52 as underdog, and 45-25 at home (64% of 70 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ULM | ARST |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 23-16 | 60-23 |
| As underdog | 26-85 | 19-52 |
| At home | 26-37 | 45-25 |
| On the road | 24-72 | 40-53 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →