Georgia State
4-0
App State
5-0
Win Probability
An undefeated App State hosts an equally undefeated Georgia State team in a matchup that favors the home side. The simulation leans clearly toward App State, with Malachi Singleton projected for 200 passing yards and Ayden Pereira limited to 150—a gap that will widen if App State's receivers sustain efficiency, as Sam Pickett III is projected for 45 yards and Rodshaun Dorsey for 45. The game hinges on whether Georgia State can impose its will on the ground; Qwantavius Wiggins is projected for only 50 rushing yards against Jaquari Lewis at 60. AccuScore's model has returned 57% on win-probability calls shaped like this one across 79 past games. For Georgia State to pull the upset, it would need to control the line of scrimmage and force Singleton into an off game.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H GAST ML
GAST +154
+1.8% EV
37.8% leads · push 7.6%
DraftKings ↗
1H APP ML
APP -165
-2.4% EV
54.6% leads · push 7.6%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
GAST +3.5 -115
-0.5% EV
53.0% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Spread
APP -3.5 -102
-3.4% EV
47.0% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 27.5 -110
+0.5% EV
52.9% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 27.5 -108
-4.6% EV
47.1% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | APP | EV | GAST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | -3.4% | -115 | -1.1% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -4.5 | -118 | -3.0% | -104 | -1.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -5 | -110 | -2.9% | -108 | -1.1% |
| Caesars ↗ | -5 | -112 | -3.3% | -108 | -1.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -105 | -3.4% | -115 | -1.1% |
| Book | APP | EV | GAST | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -205 | -2.6% | +170 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -205 | -2.6% | +168 | -1.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -210 | -3.0% | +170 | -1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -205 | -2.6% | +170 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -200 | -2.2% | +170 | -1.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 55.5 | -108 | +0.1% | -112 | -4.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 55.5 | -105 | +0.8% | -115 | -5.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 55.5 | -105 | +0.8% | -115 | -5.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 55.5 | -106 | +0.6% | -113 | -4.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 55.5 | -110 | -0.3% | -110 | -4.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 36.3%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes App State 64% to beat Georgia State (36%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes App State the more likely winner at 64%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives App State a 64% chance of beating Georgia State, against 36% for Georgia State. App State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Georgia State (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.8–6.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
App State (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Georgia State | 5.8–6.2 | <1% | 0% |
| App State | 7.6–4.4 | 10% | <1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Georgia State and App State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Georgia State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-W, most recent first).
App State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-W-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 11 times since 2014: Georgia State 0, App State 11. The last meeting, on Oct 11, 2025, finished App State 41, Georgia State 20.
Georgia State are 22-11 as favourite and 19-75 as underdog, and 19-52 on the road (27% of 71 games, 2013–2026).
App State are 67-20 as favourite and 13-19 as underdog, and 45-14 at home (76% of 59 games, 2014–2026).
| Record | GAST | APP |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 22-11 | 67-20 |
| As underdog | 19-75 | 13-19 |
| At home | 23-41 | 45-14 |
| On the road | 19-52 | 39-28 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →