Northern Illinois
0-0
San José State
4-0
Win Probability
San José State hosts Northern Illinois in a matchup the simulation favors decisively. The Spartans' passing game, led by Luke Weaver's projected 160 yards, will need to establish rhythm early against a visiting defense keyed on containing DeAree Rogers, who projects for 45 receiving yards for the Huskies. San José State's ground game through Viliami Teu (60 rushing yards) should dictate pace if Northern Illinois cannot pressure the pocket consistently. AccuScore's model has returned 62% accuracy on similar games where the home side held a strong lean, though that record came across a sample where the favored side won seven of eight comparable matchups. For Northern Illinois to pull an upset, Elijah Porter's rushing attack would need to consistently gain yards on early downs and keep San José State's offense off the field.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H NIU ML
NIU +260
+0.6% EV
26.2% leads · push 6.9%
FanDuel ↗
1H SJSU ML
SJSU -300
-2.0% EV
66.9% leads · push 6.9%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
NIU +6.5 +104
+0.4% EV
49.5% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
SJSU -6.5 -115
-2.7% EV
50.5% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Total
O 26.5 -112
-3.4% EV
49.2% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 26.5 -102
+0.3% EV
50.8% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | SJSU | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -10 | -112 | +0.5% | -108 | -4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -10.5 | -112 | -1.3% | -108 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -10 | -108 | +1.3% | -110 | -5.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -10 | -110 | +0.9% | -110 | -5.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -9.5 | -115 | +1.4% | -105 | -6.0% |
| Book | SJSU | EV | NIU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -395 | -1.6% | +310 | -3.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -430 | -2.4% | +330 | -1.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -400 | -1.7% | +320 | -2.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -390 | -1.4% | +300 | -4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -380 | -1.2% | +290 | -5.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 51.5 | -115 | -4.8% | -105 | +0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 51.5 | -114 | -4.7% | -106 | +0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 51.5 | -110 | -3.9% | -108 | -0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 52 | -108 | -4.7% | -112 | +0.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 52.5 | -110 | -6.5% | -110 | +1.9% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.5%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State 77% to beat Northern Illinois (23%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes San José State the more likely winner at 77%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives San José State a 77% chance of beating Northern Illinois, against 23% for Northern Illinois. San José State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Northern Illinois (0-8 so far) project to finish 1.2–10.8 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
San José State (4-5 so far) project to finish 5.6–7.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Northern Illinois | 1.2–10.8 | 0% | 0% |
| San José State | 5.6–7.4 | <1% | 0% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Northern Illinois and San José State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Northern Illinois have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
San José State have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
Northern Illinois are 64-23 as favourite and 22-49 as underdog, and 51-44 on the road (54% of 95 games, 2011–2026).
San José State are 32-17 as favourite and 18-71 as underdog, and 30-36 at home (45% of 66 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | NIU | SJSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 64-23 | 32-17 |
| As underdog | 22-49 | 18-71 |
| At home | 40-34 | 30-36 |
| On the road | 51-44 | 24-57 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →