Tulsa
4-0
Tulane
4-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Tulsa travels to face undefeated Tulane in a matchup where the simulation favors the home side slightly. Baylor Hayes projects for 170 passing yards while Trace Johnson is expected to stay around 160, a marginal difference that reflects how evenly matched these offenses appear. The game hinges on rushing production: Johnnie Daniels is projected for 55 yards against Damari Alston's 50, a narrow split that will determine whether Tulane can establish enough ground control to hold serve at home. AccuScore's record on similarly shaped games—slight home favorites with win probabilities in this range—stands at 36% across 64 prior contests. For Tulsa to pull off the upset, Hayes will need to exceed his modest passing projection while keeping Tulane's rushing game bottled up.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H TLSA ML
TLSA -110
-4.1% EV
43.6% leads · push 8.4%
BetMGM ↗
1H TULN ML
TULN +100
+2.2% EV
47.9% leads · push 8.4%
FanDuel ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
TLSA -0.5 +105
-5.3% EV
43.6% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
TULN +0.5 -120
+1.7% EV
56.4% covers
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
O 24.5 -105
-4.2% EV
46.9% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 24.5 -115
-0.4% EV
53.1% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | TULN | EV | TLSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +1.5 | -110 | +2.9% | -110 | -7.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +1.5 | -106 | +3.9% | -114 | -8.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +2 | -110 | +4.4% | -108 | -8.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | +1.5 | -115 | +1.8% | -104 | -6.3% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +1.5 | -105 | +4.1% | -115 | -8.3% |
| Book | TULN | EV | TLSA | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | +102 | +3.5% | -122 | -7.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | +100 | +3.0% | -120 | -6.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | +100 | +3.0% | -120 | -6.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | +100 | +3.0% | -118 | -6.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | +110 | +5.7% | -130 | -8.4% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -4.0% | -108 | -0.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 49.5 | -115 | -4.6% | -105 | +0.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 49.5 | -112 | -4.0% | -105 | +0.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 50 | -110 | -4.9% | -110 | +0.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 50.5 | -110 | -6.2% | -110 | +1.7% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 53.0%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulane 53% to beat Tulsa (47%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Tulane the more likely winner at 53%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Tulane a 53% chance of beating Tulsa, against 47% for Tulsa. Tulane are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Tulsa (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.1–5.9 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Tulane (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.0–6.0 and make the College Football Playoff in <1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Tulsa and Tulane come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Tulsa have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
Tulane have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 13 times since 2011: Tulsa 6, Tulane 7. The last meeting, on Sep 27, 2025, finished Tulane 31, Tulsa 14.
Tulsa are 51-22 as favourite and 16-71 as underdog, and 27-59 on the road (31% of 86 games, 2011–2026).
Tulane are 43-16 as favourite and 24-79 as underdog, and 42-39 at home (52% of 81 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | TLSA | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 51-22 | 43-16 |
| As underdog | 16-71 | 24-79 |
| At home | 41-39 | 42-39 |
| On the road | 27-59 | 31-59 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →