Rice
1-0
North Texas
6-0
Win Probability
North Texas hosts Rice in a matchup where the simulation decisively favors the home side. Tayven Jackson is projected for 230 passing yards, while Rice's Gael Ochoa projects to just 90—a gap that encapsulates the offensive disparity. The game turns on whether North Texas can sustain that advantage; Jahiem White is projected for 95 rushing yards to establish the ground game and control pace. AccuScore's model has gone 8 for 8 in eight similar games with this win-probability shape across different matchups. Rice would need to force turnovers and keep North Texas's passing attack off-schedule to have a path to an upset.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H RICE ML
RICE +420
-3.2% EV
17.0% leads · push 5.1%
FanDuel ↗
1H UNT ML
UNT -450
+0.1% EV
77.9% leads · push 5.1%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
RICE +9.5 -105
-7.4% EV
43.6% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Spread
UNT -9.5 -112
+3.4% EV
56.4% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 33.5 -114
+0.8% EV
54.1% over
betPARX ↗
1H Total
U 33.5 -115
-7.1% EV
45.9% under
theScore Bet ↗
| Book | Line | UNT | EV | RICE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | +3.0% | -105 | -7.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -17 | -108 | +3.6% | -110 | -7.6% |
| Caesars ↗ | -16.5 | -115 | +3.0% | -104 | -7.5% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -16.5 | -110 | +4.1% | -110 | -8.7% |
| Book | UNT | EV | RICE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -900 | -0.1% | +600 | -14.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -950 | -0.3% | +640 | -12.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -900 | -0.1% | +625 | -13.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -950 | -0.3% | +625 | -13.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -900 | -0.1% | +550 | -17.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 64.5 | -110 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 64.5 | -110 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 64.5 | -108 | +3.4% | -110 | -7.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 64.5 | -108 | +3.4% | -113 | -8.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 64.5 | -110 | +3.0% | -110 | -7.5% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 56.7%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas 90% to beat Rice (10%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes North Texas the more likely winner at 90%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives North Texas a 90% chance of beating Rice, against 10% for Rice. North Texas are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Rice (1-7 so far) project to finish 2.0–10.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
North Texas (6-2 so far) project to finish 8.8–3.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rice | 2.0–10.0 | 0% | 0% |
| North Texas | 8.8–3.2 | 39% | 5% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Rice and North Texas come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Rice have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
North Texas have won 5 of their last 5 (W-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 10 times since 2013: Rice 3, North Texas 7. The last meeting, on Nov 21, 2025, finished North Texas 56, Rice 24.
Rice are 30-16 as favourite and 22-86 as underdog, and 22-63 on the road (26% of 85 games, 2011–2026).
North Texas are 48-17 as favourite and 25-66 as underdog, and 47-28 at home (63% of 75 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | RICE | UNT |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 30-16 | 48-17 |
| As underdog | 22-86 | 25-66 |
| At home | 33-43 | 47-28 |
| On the road | 22-63 | 28-61 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →