Charlotte
1-0
UAB
4-0
Win Probability
Charlotte travels to face UAB in a matchup where the simulation leans decisively toward the home side. The Blazers' passing game, anchored by Ryder Burton's projected 180 yards, should have room to operate against a Charlotte offense limited to an estimated 150 yards from Conner Harrell. Rod Robinson II is projected for 60 rushing yards, giving UAB multiple paths to score, while Charlotte's Henry Rutledge at 50 rushing yards suggests the 49ers will struggle to establish balance. The game hinges on whether Charlotte can generate enough offensive explosiveness to keep pace; across eight similar win-probability scenarios, the favored side has won seven times. For Charlotte to pull the upset, its receivers—particularly Jaden Barnes and Derrick Eley, each projected between 35 and 40 yards—would need to consistently move the chains.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H CLT ML
CLT +250
+2.4% EV
27.9% leads · push 7.3%
DraftKings ↗
1H UAB ML
UAB -275
-2.1% EV
64.8% leads · push 7.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
CLT +6.5 -108
-0.6% EV
51.3% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
UAB -6.5 -105
-2.4% EV
48.7% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -120
+1.6% EV
56.3% over
Hard Rock Bet ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +110
-4.1% EV
43.7% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | UAB | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | +2.1% | -110 | -6.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -9.5 | -106 | -0.2% | -114 | -4.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -9 | -108 | +1.0% | -110 | -5.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | +2.1% | -109 | -6.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -8.5 | +100 | +4.6% | -120 | -8.4% |
| Book | UAB | EV | CLT | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -360 | -1.6% | +285 | -3.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -350 | -1.3% | +280 | -3.8% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -350 | -1.3% | +280 | -3.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -390 | -2.4% | +300 | -1.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -340 | -1.0% | +270 | -5.0% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 47.5 | -112 | +1.4% | -108 | -6.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 47.5 | -108 | +2.3% | -110 | -6.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 47.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes UAB 76% to beat Charlotte (24%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes UAB the more likely winner at 76%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives UAB a 76% chance of beating Charlotte, against 24% for Charlotte. UAB are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Charlotte (1-7 so far) project to finish 1.7–10.3 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
UAB (4-4 so far) project to finish 5.5–6.5 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Charlotte and UAB come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Charlotte have won 1 of their last 5 (L-W-L-L-L, most recent first).
UAB have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 4 times since 2017: Charlotte 2, UAB 2. The last meeting, on Nov 30, 2024, finished UAB 27, Charlotte 29.
Charlotte are 7-3 as favourite and 20-71 as underdog, and 13-45 on the road (22% of 58 games, 2015–2026).
UAB are 33-21 as favourite and 20-55 as underdog, and 35-25 at home (58% of 60 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | CLT | UAB |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 7-3 | 33-21 |
| As underdog | 20-71 | 20-55 |
| At home | 16-34 | 35-25 |
| On the road | 13-45 | 21-57 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →