Rutgers
2-0
Wisconsin
5-0
Win Probability
Wisconsin hosts Rutgers in a matchup where the simulation heavily favors the home side. The Badgers project to dominate through the air, with Colton Joseph expected to throw for 180 yards while distributing to multiple receivers; Tyrell Henry is projected for 30 receiving yards in this contest. Rutgers will struggle to keep pace, with AJ Surace limited to 90 passing yards and Antwan Raymond managing just 50 rushing yards. The game hinges on Wisconsin's ability to control the tempo through Joseph's arm while Rutgers cannot establish any offensive rhythm. On similar games shaped this way, AccuScore's model has posted a 64% record over 42 graded contests. For Rutgers to pull off the upset, they would need a defensive breakdown that forces Wisconsin into repeated mistakes.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H RUTG ML
RUTG +480
+3.2% EV
17.3% leads · push 6.3%
FanDuel ↗
1H WIS ML
WIS -550
-1.7% EV
76.4% leads · push 6.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
RUTG +9.5 +102
+0.6% EV
50.1% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
WIS -9.5 -118
-3.9% EV
49.9% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -118
-1.9% EV
52.1% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 +100
-2.1% EV
47.9% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | WIS | EV | RUTG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -16.5 | -118 | -3.3% | -102 | -1.0% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -17.5 | -104 | -3.8% | -118 | -1.1% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -17 | -108 | -2.9% | -110 | -1.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | -17 | -110 | -3.3% | -110 | -1.0% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -16.5 | -110 | -1.8% | -110 | -2.8% |
| Book | WIS | EV | RUTG | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -900 | -1.5% | +600 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1000 | -2.0% | +660 | -1.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -900 | -1.5% | +650 | -2.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | -850 | -1.2% | +575 | -7.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -900 | -1.5% | +550 | -8.7% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 45.5 | -108 | +1.1% | -112 | -5.5% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 45.5 | -105 | +1.8% | -112 | -5.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | 45.5 | -114 | -0.2% | -105 | -4.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 45.5 | -110 | +0.6% | -110 | -5.2% |
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin 87% to beat Rutgers (13%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Wisconsin the more likely winner at 87%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Wisconsin a 87% chance of beating Rutgers, against 13% for Rutgers. Wisconsin are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Rutgers (2-6 so far) project to finish 2.9–9.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Wisconsin (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.9–4.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 5% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Rutgers and Wisconsin come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Rutgers have won 1 of their last 5 (L-L-L-W-L, most recent first).
Wisconsin have won 3 of their last 5 (L-W-L-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 5 times since 2014: Rutgers 0, Wisconsin 5. The last meeting, on Oct 12, 2024, finished Wisconsin 42, Rutgers 7.
Rutgers are 31-14 as favourite and 21-86 as underdog, and 26-53 on the road (33% of 79 games, 2011–2026).
Wisconsin are 97-30 as favourite and 14-25 as underdog, and 73-25 at home (74% of 98 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | RUTG | WIS |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 31-14 | 97-30 |
| As underdog | 21-86 | 14-25 |
| At home | 29-53 | 73-25 |
| On the road | 26-53 | 43-35 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →