Penn State
4-0
Washington
5-0
Win Probability
Penn State travels to face Washington in a matchup where the simulation leans slightly toward the hosts. Rocco Becht projects to 180 passing yards while Elijah Brown is expected to manage just 120, giving the visiting offense a potential advantage through the air. On the ground, Washington's Brian Bonner Jr. is projected for 50 rushing yards against Carson Hansen at 55, a near-parity that underscores how tight this game figures to be. AccuScore's record on games shaped this way stands at 36% over 64 similar matchups, a cautionary note on the model's lean. For Penn State to pull the upset, the Nittany Lions would need to convert that passing advantage into points while containing Washington's receiving threats in Dezmen Roebuck and Chris Lawson, each projected for 40 yards.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H PSU ML
PSU +105
-2.3% EV
42.4% leads · push 8.3%
DraftKings ↗
1H WASH ML
WASH -118
-0.4% EV
49.2% leads · push 8.3%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
PSU +0.5 -114
-2.4% EV
50.8% covers
betPARX ↗
1H Spread
WASH -0.5 -102
-1.2% EV
49.2% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 22.5 -122
-2.4% EV
52.4% over
Caesars ↗
1H Total
U 22.5 +102
-1.9% EV
47.6% under
DraftKings ↗
| Book | Line | WASH | EV | PSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -2.5 | -105 | -2.1% | -115 | -2.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -1.5 | -118 | -1.7% | -104 | -3.3% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -2 | -110 | -1.5% | -108 | -2.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -2 | -107 | -0.9% | -113 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -1.5 | -115 | -1.1% | -105 | -3.5% |
| Book | WASH | EV | PSU | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -122 | +0.6% | +102 | -5.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -125 | +0.0% | +104 | -4.7% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -125 | +0.0% | +105 | -4.5% |
| Caesars ↗ | -122 | +0.6% | +103 | -4.9% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -120 | +1.0% | +100 | -5.6% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 44.5 | -108 | +0.3% | -112 | -4.8% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 44.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 44.5 | -108 | +0.3% | -110 | -4.4% |
| Caesars ↗ | 44.5 | -109 | +0.0% | -110 | -4.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 44.5 | -110 | -0.2% | -110 | -4.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 55.6%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington 56% to beat Penn State (44%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Washington the more likely winner at 56%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Washington a 56% chance of beating Penn State, against 44% for Penn State. Washington are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Penn State (4-4 so far) project to finish 6.8–5.2 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Washington (5-3 so far) project to finish 6.6–5.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 1% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Penn State | 6.8–5.2 | 0% | 1% |
| Washington | 6.6–5.4 | 0% | 1% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Penn State and Washington come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Penn State have won 1 of their last 5 (W-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Washington have won 2 of their last 5 (W-L-W-L-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 2 times since 2017: Penn State 2, Washington 0. The last meeting, on Nov 8, 2024, finished Washington 6, Penn State 35.
Penn State are 93-26 as favourite and 12-35 as underdog, and 43-35 on the road (55% of 78 games, 2011–2026).
Washington are 84-23 as favourite and 13-39 as underdog, and 64-25 at home (72% of 89 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | PSU | WASH |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 93-26 | 84-23 |
| As underdog | 12-35 | 13-39 |
| At home | 72-28 | 64-25 |
| On the road | 43-35 | 35-42 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →