Maryland
2-0
Purdue
3-0
Win Probability
Maryland travels to face Purdue in a matchup where the simulation clearly favors the home side. Malik Washington projects to 220 passing yards for the Terrapins, while Fame Ijeboi is expected to rush for 70 yards in a game that hinges on Purdue's ground game establishing itself early. Maryland's passing attack, led by Washington and featuring Chris Durr Jr. at 55 receiving yards, will need efficiency to keep pace. On similar games with this win-probability shape, AccuScore's model has gone 7-1 across eight comparable matchups. For Maryland to pull the upset, Washington and the passing game would need to sustain drives and limit Purdue's rushing opportunities.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H MD ML
MD +170
-1.6% EV
33.1% leads · push 7.4%
DraftKings ↗
1H PUR ML
PUR -190
-0.9% EV
59.5% leads · push 7.4%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
MD +3.5 -102
-2.3% EV
48.2% covers
DraftKings ↗
1H Spread
PUR -3.5 -110
-0.6% EV
51.8% covers
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
O 28.5 -110
-1.6% EV
50.7% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 28.5 -108
-2.5% EV
49.3% under
BetMGM ↗
| Book | Line | PUR | EV | MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -6 | -110 | +0.5% | -110 | -4.9% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -6.5 | -105 | +0.2% | -115 | -4.6% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -6 | -108 | +1.0% | -110 | -4.9% |
| Caesars ↗ | -6 | -112 | +0.1% | -108 | -4.6% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -5.5 | -115 | +0.8% | -105 | -5.4% |
| Book | PUR | EV | MD | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -245 | -1.8% | +200 | -2.7% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -215 | +0.2% | +176 | -6.5% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -235 | -1.2% | +190 | -4.3% |
| Caesars ↗ | -240 | -1.5% | +196 | -3.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -225 | -0.5% | +190 | -4.3% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 57.5 | -110 | -1.3% | -110 | -3.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 57.5 | -108 | -0.9% | -110 | -3.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | 57.5 | -106 | -0.4% | -113 | -3.8% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 57.5 | -105 | -0.2% | -115 | -4.2% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 51.4%
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NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue 69% to beat Maryland (32%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Purdue the more likely winner at 69%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Purdue a 69% chance of beating Maryland, against 32% for Maryland. Purdue are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Maryland (2-6 so far) project to finish 2.9–9.1 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Purdue (3-5 so far) project to finish 4.3–7.7 and make the College Football Playoff in 0% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Maryland and Purdue come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Maryland have won 0 of their last 5 (L-L-L-L-L, most recent first).
Purdue have won 2 of their last 5 (L-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2016: Maryland 1, Purdue 2. The last meeting, on Oct 8, 2022, finished Purdue 31, Maryland 29.
Maryland are 35-21 as favourite and 18-74 as underdog, and 24-50 on the road (32% of 74 games, 2011–2026).
Purdue are 29-19 as favourite and 26-83 as underdog, and 34-54 at home (39% of 88 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | MD | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 35-21 | 29-19 |
| As underdog | 18-74 | 26-83 |
| At home | 30-52 | 34-54 |
| On the road | 24-50 | 21-55 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →