Oregon
5-0
Ohio State
6-0
Win Probability
Undefeated Oregon travels to face undefeated Ohio State in a matchup the simulation decisively favours to the home side. The Buckeyes' ground game will be central: Bo Jackson is projected for 70 rushing yards, while Oregon's Brandon Smith figures for just 20 on the ground. Through the air, Jeremiah Smith (55 receiving yards projected) gives the hosts a significant advantage over Oregon's passing attack, which leans heavily on Dakorien Moore at 45 yards. AccuScore's model has backed the home side in games shaped like this one 7 times out of 8 across comparable matchups. For the Ducks to pull the upset, they would need their defence to generate enough disruption to keep the Ohio State run game in check.
AccuScore's simulation of the first half, priced against the books' 1st-half lines.
Leads at the half
1H ORE ML
ORE +190
-2.6% EV
30.1% leads · push 7.5%
theScore Bet ↗
1H OSU ML
OSU -220
-0.9% EV
62.4% leads · push 7.5%
BetMGM ↗
2-way moneyline: a tie at the half returns the stake, so the tie is priced as a push.
1H Spread
ORE +4.5 -114
-2.2% EV
50.9% covers
FanDuel ↗
1H Spread
OSU -4.5 +100
-1.0% EV
49.0% covers
Caesars ↗
1H Total
O 23.5 -115
+0.5% EV
54.0% over
BetMGM ↗
1H Total
U 23.5 -104
-4.9% EV
46.0% under
FanDuel ↗
| Book | Line | OSU | EV | ORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.2% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | +1.6% | -110 | -6.2% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -7.5 | -110 | +1.6% | -108 | -5.8% |
| Caesars ↗ | -7.5 | -104 | +3.1% | -115 | -7.1% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -8.5 | -110 | -1.6% | -110 | -3.0% |
| Book | OSU | EV | ORE | EV |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | -305 | -1.9% | +245 | -2.6% |
| FanDuel ↗ | -295 | -1.5% | +235 | -3.9% |
| BetMGM ↗ | -300 | -1.7% | +240 | -3.2% |
| Caesars ↗ | -295 | -1.5% | +240 | -3.2% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | -290 | -1.3% | +240 | -3.2% |
| Book | Line | Over | EV (O) | Under | EV (U) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DraftKings ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
| FanDuel ↗ | 46.5 | -112 | +1.4% | -108 | -6.0% |
| BetMGM ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -108 | -6.0% |
| Caesars ↗ | 46.5 | -109 | +2.0% | -110 | -6.4% |
| theScore Bet ↗ | 46.5 | -110 | +1.8% | -110 | -6.4% |
Where to Bet
silverWin probability: 54.1%
Get one of today's Gold picks delivered every morning — free.
No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.
NCAAF
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State 73% to beat Oregon (28%).
Projection updated
AccuScore's simulation makes Ohio State the more likely winner at 73%. The projection updates as team news and prices move.
AccuScore's simulation gives Ohio State a 73% chance of beating Oregon, against 28% for Oregon. Ohio State are at home and favoured on these numbers.
Oregon (5-3 so far) project to finish 7.6–4.4 and make the College Football Playoff in 10% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
Ohio State (6-2 so far) project to finish 9.0–3.0 and make the College Football Playoff in 57% of AccuScore's simulated seasons.
| Team | Projected record | Division title | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon | 7.6–4.4 | <1% | 10% |
| Ohio State | 9.0–3.0 | 19% | 57% |
From AccuScore's daily simulation of the rest of the season. Every NCAAF team's projection →
How Oregon and Ohio State come into this game: their latest results, every meeting on record and how each has fared against the betting market.
Oregon have won 3 of their last 5 (W-L-W-W-L, most recent first).
Ohio State have won 4 of their last 5 (L-W-W-W-W, most recent first).
The teams have met 3 times since 2021: Oregon 2, Ohio State 1. The last meeting, on Jan 1, 2025, finished Ohio State 41, Oregon 21.
Oregon are 104-24 as favourite and 13-18 as underdog, and 51-26 on the road (66% of 77 games, 2011–2026).
Ohio State are 139-16 as favourite and 9-6 as underdog, and 99-12 at home (89% of 111 games, 2011–2026).
| Record | ORE | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| As favourite | 104-24 | 139-16 |
| As underdog | 13-18 | 9-6 |
| At home | 77-18 | 99-12 |
| On the road | 51-26 | 60-13 |
Straight-up records from AccuScore's game archive. Favourite and underdog are the market's, decided by the point spread. How the NCAAF odds have moved →